2003 ANNUAL REPORT
Researching the challenges posed by urban growth
For decades, demographers have thought of developing countries as mostly rural, but in the next 30 years that picture will change. The world’s population is projected to increase by 2.2 billion by 2035, and almost all of the growth will occur in the cities of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
| Levels of infant and child mortality in Nairobi slums as compared with other parts of Kenya |
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The urban poor face health risks comparable to or greater than risks in rural villages. In the urban slums of Nairobi, infant and child mortality rates are more than twice the rate for Nairobi as a whole. |
Demographers know little about how particular urban settings affect people’s marriages, fertility, health, and schooling. What data there are come mostly from large cities, and few studies have examined the differences within and among large urban areas or have focused on smaller cities. To narrow that research gap and to help governments manage urbanization, the U.S. National Research Council formed the Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, chaired by Population Council economist Mark R. Montgomery and Richard Stren of the University of Toronto. The panel’s report, Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World, was published by the National Academies Press in 2003.
Among the panel’s findings:
Nearly half the world’s urban population lives in the smaller cities of developing countries (cities of one million people or fewer). The bulk of future population growth will take place in such cities.
The expansion of squatter settlements and shantytowns hinders the provision of basic infrastructure and amenities, especially when growth occurs on the peripheries of cities, where government responsibilities are ill-defined.
As a group, people living in smaller cities have less access to health-related public services—running water, flush toilets, and electricity—than people in large cities. Studying small cities is a critical precursor to improving these conditions.
Research is needed on measuring poverty, identifying vulnerable groups, and creating links to assistance.
“The urban advantage in health is not a myth—but it is only a partial truth,” explains Montgomery. Comparing the health of urban and rural residents, the panel found that urban dwellers do not always enjoy an advantage. In fact, city residents who are poor can face health risks comparable to risks in rural villages, and for slum dwellers risks can be even greater.
As national governments decentralize, city officials are being asked to meet increasing demands for services, yet few are equipped to do so. If demographers are to help them, they must learn much more about cities and the needs of the people who live in them.
Mark Montgomery is a senior associate in the Policy Research Division. |  |
