Population Association of America (PAA) 2013 Annual Meeting
"Urbanization and climate change hazards in Asia"
Deborah L. Balk, Mark R. Montgomery, and Zhen Liu
United Nations forecasts of urban population growth suggest that from 2000–2025 Asian countries will see net increase of more than one billion people in their cities and towns. This growth may be disproportionately located in regions which appear to be environmentally insecure, such as deltas which are expected to feel the brunt of climate-related change in the coming decades. Yet where precisely, and which populations, has not been systematically assessed. Low-lying cities/towns near the coast will most probably face increased risks from storm surges and flooding; those in drylands are expected to experience increased water stress and episodes of extreme heat, as well as flash flooding. This paper identifies and estimates the populations in cities of Asia by ecologically delineated zones that are expected to experience the full force of climate change: the low-elevation coastal zones, areas susceptible to inland flooding, and in drylands. Competing and multiple risks are compared.
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