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MEDIA CENTER In Developed Countries, an End to Childbearing Delays Could Lead to Fertility Rise NEW YORK (8 January 2003) — With fertility in much of the developed world at historic lows, a lively debate has emerged among demographers and policymakers: How low will it go? A study published in the September 2002 issue of the Population Council's quarterly journal, Population and Development Review, tackles this question by analyzing the implications of changes in the timing of childbearing. The study, by Population Council vice president John Bongaarts, concludes that many developed countries, especially those in the European Union, could well experience a period of modest rises in fertility in the near future if the timing of childbearing stabilizes. Even if this happens, however, it seems unlikely that fertility will climb back to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. By the late 1990s, the conventionally measured current fertility rate in the "more developed" world (Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand) had decreased to 1.6 births per woman-well below the replacement level. Bongaarts acknowledges that while fertility in these countries is indeed low, women's actual childbearing levels are not as low as the total fertility rate might suggest. This is due to a "postponement effect," which is the result of women delaying childbearing until later in life. According to Bongaarts, fertility measures such as the total fertility rate are temporarily depressed by a rise in the mean age at childbearing. "This postponement effect has been present in many developed countries since the 1970s and could continue for years into the future," Bongaarts notes. However, once these women decide to have children, the downward trend in the total fertility rate could end, and a slight upturn is a distinct possibility. Bongaarts notes that in contemporary societies women on average want about two children, but many obstacles keep them from achieving their ideal family size. These obstacles include divorce, celibacy, infertility, and the difficulties women face in combining childrearing with their education and a career. Although analysts do not agree on which of these factors are most important in determining fertility trends, they acknowledge that the obstacles are difficult and expensive to remove. These recent trends in childbearing are part of a larger process of social and demographic change usually referred to as the second demographic transition. In addition to declines in fertility, these new transitions are typically accompanied by widespread changes in attitudes and behaviors regarding sexuality, contraception, cohabitation, marriage, divorce, and extramarital childbearing. One reason for the uncertainty about future fertility trends is that conventional demographic theory has little to say about levels and trends in post-transitional societies, Bongaarts notes. Explanations for low fertility are likely to vary from society to society; and even if past behavior could be explained, the implications for future fertility trends would not necessarily be clear, because many trends may have run their course and new factors influencing fertility might emerge.
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