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MEDIA CENTER Smoking Gun: Council Publishes New Analysis NEW YORK (7 July 2005) — A new analysis of smokers and mortality reveals a more nuanced risk profile than previously available, indicating that cigarettes pose a greater relative danger to women than to men and that unhealthy behaviors associated with smoking (such as heavy drinking) have less of an impact on tobacco-related deaths than suspected. A published account of the research, "Mortality attributable to cigarette smoking in the United States," appears today in the Population Council’s peer-reviewed journal Population and Development Review. The study team, led by University of Colorado professor Richard Rogers, considers smokers’ age, sex, number of cigarettes smoked daily, and other health and economic characteristics—factors that could obscure the role that smoking plays in causing death. The researchers also compared mortality rates of those who have never smoked to both former as well as current smokers. American men, generally more likely than women to be smokers and to smoke heavily, have higher overall tobacco-related mortality rates than women. "However, when comparing the various types of smokers—light, moderate, and heavy—smoking seems to present a higher risk to women," Rogers said. (The researchers defined heavy smokers as those who smoke two or more packs daily; moderate smokers go through one to two packs a day; and light smokers light up less than a pack a day.) The study concluded that men who smoked heavily had a 2.2-fold higher risk of death than men who had never smoked. That same comparison in women, however, resulted in a 3.5-fold higher risk. "But this sex gap in smoking and mortality could reflect sex differences both in lifetime smoking patterns and in reporting patterns of cigarette smoking," Rogers said. The investigators also explored the impact of behaviors and conditions associated with smoking—including heavy drinking, lack of exercise, and lower socioeconomic status—to determine the role of these factors in smoking-related deaths. According to Rogers, “We found that they do have an effect, but it is much more modest than many might think." Adjusting for these associated risks only slightly reduces the mortality rates that are attributed to smoking. The new data analysis assessed the difference between the risks of current and former smokers too. Many previous studies grouped former smokers and nonsmokers into the same category. "The way many researchers have looked at excess death has been to assume that everyone who is a former smoker could have the mortality experience of people who have never smoked. Instead, we assumed that once someone smokes, they can't become somebody who has never smoked," Rogers said. Even taking into account related risky behavior, current smokers had more than twice the risk of death during a seven-year follow-up period compared to those who had never smoked. The study also revealed that while former light, moderate, and heavy smokers showed lower mortality rates in a follow-up period as compared to current smokers, they still exhibited considerably higher mortality risks than those who have never smoked. The authors examined the number of smoking-related deaths in the year 2000 and concluded that almost 340,000 deaths could have been avoided that year if current and former smokers never smoked. Alternatively, they determined that in the same year approximately 130,000 deaths would have been prevented if smokers had stopped smoking. In addition to Richard Rogers, the research team included University of Colorado Boulder professor Fred Pampel, University of Texas Professor Robert Hummer, and University of Pennsylvania Robert Wood Johnson Fellow Patrick Krueger. Rogers, Richard G., Robert A. Hummer, Patrick M. Krueger, Fred C. Pampel. 2005. “Mortality attributable to cigarette smoking in the United States," Population and Development Review 31(2):259–292. The Population Council is an international, nonprofit, nongovernmental research organization that seeks to improve the well-being and reproductive health of current and future generations around the world and to help achieve a humane, equitable, and sustainable balance between people and resources. The Council conducts biomedical, social science, and public health research and helps build research capacities in developing countries. Established in 1952, the Council is governed by an international board of trustees. Its New York headquarters supports a global network of regional and country offices. ### Media contacts Population Council |
