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MEDIA CENTER Most Comprehensive Study of Kenyan Fertility to Date Published by African Population Policy Research Center NEW YORK (3 September 1998) — The most comprehensive study of Kenyan fertility—a series of papers and a compendium—has been published by the African Population Policy Research Center (APPRC), a program established by the Population Council to conduct research on population and reproductive health issues in sub-Saharan Africa. The papers and compendium, titled Fertility Decline in Kenya: Levels, Trends, and Differentials, represent the Center’s first research publications and are the result of a year-long intensive study of secondary data on social, demographic, economic, and other factors that have contributed to the demographic transition underway in Kenya. The demographic transition is defined as a process in which societies move from a stage of high fertility and mortality through a phase of rapid population growth as mortality declines but fertility remains high, to a state of stable low fertility and mortality. In Kenya, declines in mortality and the prevalence of high fertility before the mid-1980s helped spur an increase in population from 8.6 million in 1962 to a current estimate of 29 million. As one of the few sub-Saharan countries to experience remarkable declines in fertility in the last 15 years, Kenya has seen its total fertility rate decline from 8.0 in 1979 to 5.4 in 1993. According to the APPRC publications, two of the most striking demographic phenomena in Kenya are the drastic decline in the number of children that couples would like to have, and the increase in the proportion of women who want no more children. The mean desired number of children decreased from 6.0 in 1978 to 3.7 in 1993. APPRC researchers used data collected in four national demographic and health surveys carried out between 1978 and 1993 and population censuses of 1962, 1969, 1979, and 1989. "The compendium is an important contribution that may help other countries in sub-Saharan Africa better understand the underlying factors and dynamics leading to a decline in fertility," said APPRC Director Francis Nii-Amoo Dodoo. "Our study, which uses a combination of data sets from the 1970s to the 1990s, is the most up-to-date study on the changing levels, trends, and correlates in the country across this period of rapid fertility change." The researchers examined fertility differentials by education, rural-urban residence, province of residence, parity, age, and women's work outside the home. The result indicated that women who worked for wages and those who lived in urban provinces were more likely to use contraception than those in rural areas. Kenya’s current fertility transition is a result of diverse and complex factors, the researchers conclude. The data point to various factors, especially the rapid increase in contraceptive use (particularly modern methods) and changing patterns of marriage. "It appears that the government’s investment in health and education during the first 20 years of political independence had a significant impact on the fertility behavior of individuals even though this link was somehow remote in the minds of policy makers," the compendium states. "The government’s investment in the education sector not only provided quality human resources, but it also provided women the opportunity to delay marriage and assess the opportunity cost of high fertility." The declines in desired family sizes reported by women in the various surveys reflect the rapid changes in attitudes about the value of children. This change in attitude was contrary to the pronatalistic culture and social structures that had guided reproductive behavior before the onset of the fertility decline, the researchers note. Future studies should examine what prompted couples and individuals to reduce their desired fertility, the authors suggest. The publications were presented at the Center’s third annual advisory board meeting on 30–31 July in Nairobi, Kenya. The APPRC was established in 1995 at the Population Council’s Nairobi office to train indigenous scholars, develop policy recommendations, and explore the dynamics of the demographic transition underway in several African countries. An independent advisory board, composed of leaders in the population and development field, from within and outside Africa, will provide guidance to the Center until it achieves institutional autonomy. The compendium and papers listed below can be obtained by contacting Raji Mohanam at +1 212 339 0636 or via e-mail at apprc@popcouncil.org Compendium
Working Papers
Policy Brief
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