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MEDIA CENTER The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact NEW YORK (12 July 2001) — Famine-related deaths in North Korea from 1995 to 2000 most likely numbered between 600,000 and 1 million, according to a new study by two researchers at the International Center of the U.S. Census Bureau. The study, by Daniel Goodkind and Loraine West, appears in the June issue of Population and Development Review, a peer-reviewed journal published by the Population Council. Acknowledging that "the actual demographic toll of the famine remains uncertain owing to a lack of reliable data," Goodkind and West use demographic models to show how two direct sources of information on mortality—-the figures released by the North Korean government and recent surveys of famine refugees—-produce estimates ranging from 200,000 to 3 million deaths. By analyzing indirect evidence, including China's mortality experience during its Great Leap Forward and recent surveys of child malnutrition in North Korea, the authors are able to narrow the probable range of mortality to between 600,000 and 1 million. "In the absence of reliable data on mortality across all age groups, we cannot estimate directly the North Korean famine's impact on the overall population," the authors say. "Instead, to produce a plausible guide to that mortality, we return to China's experience during the Great Leap Forward (1958-61). The North Korean famine bears numerous parallels to the one that China experienced a generation earlier. Both famines resulted from a series of climatic calamities interacting with overzealous attempts to transform social institutions in line with Marxist ideals. Both famines persisted for several years because secretive governments were initially reluctant to admit the existence of adverse conditions and were opposed to relief efforts being undertaken earlier." China's Great Leap Forward pattern of mortality increases, when applied to the North Korean context, results in a model implying about 1 million excess deaths in North Korea between 1995 and 2000. Noting that they cannot be sure that mortality increases in North Korea during the late 1990s matched those of China during the Great Leap Forward, the authors look to an indirect measure of infant mortality to adjust the number of excess deaths. The North Korean government permitted the World Food Programme (WFP) to conduct a study of child malnutrition in August 1997. The results showed that 16.5 percent of children were wasted and 38.2 percent were stunted. A second study by the WFP, in 1998, showed wasting rates of 15.6 percent and stunting rates of 63.8 percent. According to the authors, in regard to wasting, North Korea ranked third worst in Asia, behind only India and Bangladesh. Because North Korea's malnutrition surveys did not ask about child mortality, the latter can only be inferred indirectly, by translating malnutrition into corresponding levels of infant mortality. Such a translation implied an infant mortality rate of about 87 per thousand live births in 1998. The authors then constructed another demographic model by using the ratio between the rate implied by the child nutrition survey and that based on the Great Leap Forward to scale back peak age-specific death rates calculated from the Great Leap Forward model. The results suggest about 605,000 excess deaths. The authors acknowledge a few misgivings. "One question concerns whether the relationship between these measures in a country experiencing a famine will be the same as the relationship in countries not so affected. For instance, children in countries with long-standing poor health conditions may have developed an ability to survive even if the prevalence of malnutrition is relatively high," they say. "Yet, since health conditions in North Korea were good prior to the famine, malnutrition may have had a more severe impact on survival there than it would have had elsewhere. Thus, the level of infant mortality relative to malnutrition might have been fairly high in North Korea during the famine years. On the other hand, a countervailing effect may have occurred if the sudden famine sped up 'selection effects' whereby the frailest children died quickly, leaving behind a hardier group of survivors." While the worst of the famine appears to be over, the food situation in North Korea remains precarious, note the authors. "Without sufficient assistance from international donors that reaches needy citizens, the nutritional status of the country could deteriorate again." Daniel Goodkind is a demographer and Loraine West is an economist at the International Programs Center, U.S. Census Bureau. Population and Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, June 2001, also includes Notes and Commentary, Data and Perspectives, Archives, Book Reviews, and Documents. For subscription information call +1 212 339 0514, fax +1 212 755 6052, or e-mail publications@popcouncil.org.
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