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MEDIA CENTER Global Fertility Transition NEW YORK (16 November 2001) — Among the most striking social transformations in the contemporary world is the decline in human fertility. The global average has fallen from 5 children per woman in 1950 to under 3 in 2000, with continued declines to 2 births per woman (or perhaps even lower) expected in coming decades. A new book published as a supplement to the Population Council journal Population and Development Review explores the factors underlying the fertility transition. Edited by Rodolfo A. Bulatao and John B. Casterline, Global Fertility Transition analyzes recent trends and considers the implications for future projections. While virtually all demographers acknowledge the global fertility transition, there has been considerable debate about what has caused it to happen and how it operates. Increased longevity, economic growth, social development, improved contraception, a falling demand for children, increased gender equity, and other factors cause societies to move from high mortality and high fertility toward low fertility and low mortality. Countries show different patterns—in the timing and pace of change, and in economic and cultural circumstances. Explanations are similarly varied, ranging from lower mortality and economic development to social diffusion and ideational change. The contribution of explicit government policy actions to fertility transition continues to be debated, while new research challenges arise in seeking to understand the post-transition phenomenon of below-replacement fertility. Given these differences in interpretation of fertility transition and its aftermath, an overall assessment of the subject is timely: to discuss the points at issue, stake out areas of agreement and contention, and identify new theoretical leads. Rodolfo A. Bulatao is an Independent Consultant, Silver Spring, Maryland. John B. Casterline is Senior Associate, Policy Research Division, Population Council. To order a copy, call 212-339-0514, fax 212-755-6052, or email publications@popcouncil.org. You may also order online. For further information, contact media@popcouncil.org.
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