Political Economy of Population Change
The Council is conducting research on the political dimensions of demographic change at the local, national, and international levels.
Components of this project are concerned with the political dimensions of demographic change in both transitional and post-transitional societies, at a variety of scales.
Governments have a major influence on the economic and social factors that bring about—or impede—demographic transition. Most obviously, governments are responsible for the legal and administrative systems that make up an important part of the setting for family life and economic activity, determining the extent of social mobility and the returns to individual effort in the society and, in considerable measure, the pace of economic growth. Less tangibly, governments also wield the symbols of national identity and cultural continuity. The fertility and health-seeking decisions of individuals and families are made in this setting. In contrast to that broad range of influence, the explicit efforts of governments to change demographic outcomes, typically through extension programs, may be of minor significance. A component of this project, extending over several years, entails a systematic exploration of these factors in demographic transitions.
At the country level, the studies by Geoffrey McNicoll have been initially focused on comparative analysis of the experience of East and Southeast Asian societies, seeking to derive the “lessons” of the Asian health and fertility transitions for countries (mainly African) still in the early phases of transition. A current research topic explores the bases of the contrasting economic–demographic outcomes in Indonesia and Nigeria.
At the regional and global level, a study of the political economy of population change over 1950–2050 has been organized jointly by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll. An edited volume on the topic, published in 2006, sketched the broad regional patterns in the timing and pace of the transformation of demographic regimes over the last 50 years and expectations for the next 50 years. It brings diverse disciplinary expertise to bear on understanding the consequences of this experience. As part of the study, Demeny and McNicoll are examining possible trends in the political demography of the world system under alternative assumptions about trade regimes and migration flows, such as changes in the relationship between population and power and in the scope of state sovereignty, pressures toward fission and coalescence, implications of large-scale migrant flows, and the prospect of a permanent underclass of states.
Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 210)
Publication date: 2006
Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition (abstract) (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Population and Development Review 32(1): 1-25
Publication date: 2006
The political demography of the world system, 2000-2050 (PDF)
Demeny,Paul; McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 213)
Publication date: 2006
The political demography of the world system, 2000-2050
Demeny,Paul; McNicoll,Geoffrey
from The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950-2050, pp. 254-287
Publication date: 2006
The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950-2050 (HTML)
Publication date: 2006
Demographic future of East Asian regional integration
McNicoll,Geoffrey; Pempel,T.J.
from Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region, pp. 55-74
Publication date: 2004
Population futures for the next three hundred years: Soft landing or surprises to come? (abstract) (PDF)
Demeny,Paul
Population and Development Review 30(3): 507-517
Publication date: 2004
Demographic transition
Casterline,John B.; Demeny,Paul; McNicoll,Geoffrey
from Encyclopedia of Population, pp. 210-216
Publication date: 2003
Demographic transition
McNicoll,Geoffrey; Mokyr,Joel
from The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History, pp. 71-74
Publication date: 2003
Encyclopedia of Population
Publication date: 2003
Population policy: A concise summary (PDF)
Demeny,Paul
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 173)
Publication date: 2003
Demographic factors in East Asian regional integration (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 158)
Publication date: 2002
Fertility: Institutional and political approaches
McNicoll,Geoffrey; Smelser,Neil J.; Baltes,Paul B.
from International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, pp. 5538-5543
Publication date: 2001
Government and fertility in transitional and post-transitional societies
McNicoll,Geoffrey; Bulatao,Rodolfo A.; Casterline,John B.
from Global Fertility Transition,, pp. 129-159
Publication date: 2001
Population forecasts
Bongaarts,John; Breslow,Lester
from Encyclopedia of Public Health, pp. 942-
Publication date: 2001
Reflections on 'replacement migration' (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
People and Place 8(4): 1-12
Publication date: 2000
Population weights in the international order (abstract) (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Population and Development Review 25(3): 411-442
Publication date: 1999
Population weights in the international order (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 126)
Publication date: 1999
Government and fertility in transitional and post-transitional societies (PDF)
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 113)
Publication date: 1998
The governance of fertility transition: Reflections on the Asian experience
McNicoll,Geoffrey; Jones,Gavin W.; Douglas,Robert M.; Caldwell,John C.; D'Souza,Rennie M.
from The Continuing Demographic Transition, pp. 365-362
Publication date: 1997
Governance of fertility transition: Regularity and duress
McNicoll,Geoffrey
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 85)
Publication date: 1996
Project Stats
Location: United States
Program(s):
Poverty, Gender, and Youth
Topic(s):
Population policy and demographic analysis
Duration: 1/2005 - 12/2009
Population Council researchers:
Paul Demeny
Geoffrey McNicoll
Donors:
The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
The Rockefeller Foundation
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