PROJECT
Stalled Fertility Transition in Egypt: Reaching Policymakers and Program Managers with the Findings

Following a period of relatively rapid decline in the 1980s and early 1990s, the Egyptian fertility decline stalled during the 1990s. The most recent Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey (EIDHS) in 2003 shows a marked drop in fertility since the 2000 EDHS, an indication that the fertility decline may be picking up speed once again. Nevertheless, the total fertility rate, estimated at 3.25 in the 2003 survey, remains more than one child above replacement level.

The main objective of the Stalled Fertility Decline (SFT) project was to address critical questions about the current status of the fertility decline in Egypt and the prospects for a further decline to replacement-level fertility. More specifically, the project addressed the following questions:

• Why has fertility declined slowly in Egypt?
• What are the prospects for further decline?
• What are the obstacles to decline to replacement level?
• What policies/programs might facilitate decline to replacement level?

The SFT data-collection phase re-interviewed a subsample of 3,286 currently married women who were interviewed in the 2003 EIDHS as well as samples of young, never-married women and men (917 women and 945 men). This project investigated attitudes toward childbearing and, in particular, receptivity to the norm of the two-child family.

Preliminary analysis of the SFT and EIDHS data indicated that a transition from Egypt’s current fertility rate of 3.2 births per woman to the replacement level will require reductions in both wanted and unwanted fertility. A second, equally important point is that replacement-level fertility almost certainly will not be achieved until virtually all Egyptians accept two children as their childbearing goal.

Data collected for the SFT project revealed that widespread acceptance of a two-child norm is lacking at present among currently married women. Even among younger adults who are in the early stages of their reproductive lives or are about to begin childbearing, a substantial fraction still considers three or more children to be desirable.

With the successful completion of the data collection phase, the priorities of the second phase will address: (1) complete scientifically sound and policy-relevant analysis of the SFT data; and (2) ensure that the findings are effectively disseminated to key audiences in Egypt.

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Population Council researchers

Rania Roushdy, Nahla Abdel-Tawab, Rania Salem

Non-Council collaborators

John B. Casterline (Pennsylvania State University)

Laila El-Zeini, Hassan Zaky (Cairo University and Social Research Center, American University in Cairo [SRC-AUC])

Ray Langsten (SRC-AUC)

Laila Nawar (Cairo Demographic Center)

Donors

The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

US Agency for International Development

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