PROJECT
New Methods for Estimating and Projecting
Urban Populations

This project, a collaborative effort with the United Nations Population Division, UN-HABITAT, and researchers at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, explores new methods for estimating and projecting city population growth rates in the developing world. The research team is linking city population data assembled by the UN Population Division with demographic survey data on rates of fertility, marriage, migration, and mortality in statistical models of city population growth. The team is developing probabilistic forecasting methods using both classical and Bayesian statistical methods.

This project also makes use of extensive satellite imagery to estimate city boundaries; the research team is exploring new methods for projecting the spatial extent and form of cities as these are affected by elevation, distance to coastlines, and other natural features and barriers.

A workshop held 9–10 January 2006 at Columbia University presented these new methods to a range of experts in remote-sensing and demographic estimation techniques, along with UN statistical agencies.

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Population Council researcher

Mark R. Montgomery

Non-Council collaborators

Deborah Balk (Columbia University)

Thomas Buettner (UN Population Division)

Eduardo López Moreno (UN-HABITAT)

Donors

UN Population Division

Columbia University

International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

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