PROJECT
Political Economy of Population Change

Components of this project are concerned with the political dimensions of demographic change in both transitional and post-transitional societies, at a variety of scales.

Governments have a major influence on the economic and social factors that bring about—or impede—demographic transition. Most obviously, governments are responsible for the legal and administrative systems that make up an important part of the setting for family life and economic activity, determining the extent of social mobility and the returns to individual effort in the society and, in considerable measure, the pace of economic growth. Less tangibly, governments also wield the symbols of national identity and cultural continuity. The fertility and health-seeking decisions of individuals and families are made in this setting. In contrast to that broad range of influence, the explicit efforts of governments to change demographic outcomes, typically through extension programs, may be of minor significance. A component of this project, extending over several years, entails a systematic exploration of these factors in demographic transitions.

At the country level, the studies by Geoffrey McNicoll have been initially focused on comparative analysis of the experience of East and Southeast Asian societies, seeking to derive the “lessons” of the Asian health and fertility transitions for countries (mainly African) still in the early phases of transition. A current research topic explores the bases of the contrasting economic–demographic outcomes in Indonesia and Nigeria.

At the regional and global level, a study of the political economy of population change over 1950–2050 has been organized jointly by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll. An edited volume on the topic, published in 2006, sketched the broad regional patterns in the timing and pace of the transformation of demographic regimes over the last 50 years and expectations for the next 50 years. It brings diverse disciplinary expertise to bear on understanding the consequences of this experience. As part of the study, Demeny and McNicoll are examining possible trends in the political demography of the world system under alternative assumptions about trade regimes and migration flows, such as changes in the relationship between population and power and in the scope of state sovereignty, pressures toward fission and coalescence, implications of large-scale migrant flows, and the prospect of a permanent underclass of states.

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Population Council researchers

Geoffrey McNicoll, Paul Demeny

Donors

The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

The Rockefeller Foundation

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