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Population and Development Review

March 2013, Vol. 39, No. 1 (Full article access available to subscribers)

Articles

• Trends and Socioeconomic Gradients in Adult Mortality around the Developing World / Damien de Walque, Deon Filmer
  
  We combine data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys from 46 countries to analyze trends and socioeconomic differences in adult mortality, calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15–49. The analysis yields four main findings. First, adult mortality is different from child mortality: while under-5 mortality shows a definite improving trend over time, adult mortality does not, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The second main finding is the increase in adult mortality in sub-Saharan African countries. The increase is dramatic among those most affected by the HIV /AIDS pandemic. Mortality rates in the highest HIV-prevalence countries of southern Africa exceed those in countries that experienced episodes of armed conflict. Third, even in sub-Saharan countries where HIV prevalence is not as high, mortality rates appear to be at best stagnating, and even increasing in several cases. Finally, the main dimension along which mortality appears to differ in the aggregate is by sex. Adult mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa have risen substantially higher for men than for women—especially so in the high HIV-prevalence countries. On the whole, the data do not show large gaps by urban/rural residence or by school attainment. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 1–29]
  
  
• New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals / Mikko Myrskylä, Joshua R. Goldstein, Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
  (Read a news release from Max Planck Institute on this research)
  
  With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many "low-fertility" countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long-term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low-fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 31–56]
  
  
• Life Expectancy during the Great Depression in Eleven European Countries / Tim A. Bruckner, Andrew Noymer, Ralph A. Catalano
  
  The recent global economic recession has renewed interest in knowing whether a declining economy affects population health. Understanding the extreme case of the Great Depression may inform the current debate as well as theory regarding biological and behavioral adaptations to unwanted economic change. We test the hypothesis, recently suggested in the literature, that period life expectancy at birth improved during the Great Depression. We applied time-series methods to annual period life expectancy data of the civilian population from eleven European countries. Methods control for trends and other forms of autocorrelation in life expectancy that could induce spurious associations. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that period life expectancy at birth during the Great Depression remained within the interval forecasted from historical values. Additional analyses using an automated, rule-based methodology also cannot reject the null hypothesis. During the most severe phase of the Great Depression, period life expectancy in eleven European countries generally did not rise above expected levels. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 57–74]
  
  
• Son Preference and the Persistence of Culture: Evidence from South and East Asian Immigrants to Canada / Douglas Almond, Lena Edlund, Kevin Milligan
  
  Preference for sons over daughters, evident in China's and South Asia's male sex ratios, is commonly rationalized by poverty and the need for old-age support. In this article we study South and East Asian immigrants to Canada, a group for whom the economic imperative to select sons is largely absent. Analyzing the 2001 and 2006 censuses, 20 percent samples, we find clear evidence of extensive sex selection in favor of boys at higher parities among South and East Asian immigrants unless they are Christian or Muslim. The latter finding accords with the explicit prohibition against (female) infanticide—traditionally the main sex-selection method—in these religions. Our findings point to a strong cultural component to both the preference for sons and the willingness to resort to induced abortion based on sex. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 75–95]
  
  
• The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth / Quamrul H. Ashraf, David N. Weil, Joshua Wilde
  
  We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium- variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. We conclude with a discussion of the quantitative significance of these results. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 97–130]
  
  

Notes and Commentary

• Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe / Chris Wilson, Tomáš Sobotka, Lee Williamson, Paul Boyle
  
  There are long-standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below-replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and some are particularly data demanding. In this article we propose a simple method to assess how far migration alters the extent of replacement for a birth cohort as it ages. We term the measure the overall replacement ratio (ORR). It is calculated by taking the size of a female birth cohort at selected ages divided by the average size of the cohorts of mothers in the year of birth. We present estimates of the ORR for a range of European countries representing different replacement regimes. We demonstrate that for many countries net migration has become a key factor in their population trends during the last few decades. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 131–157]
  
  

Archives

• Alexis de Tocqueville on the Influence of Democracy on the Family
  
  A common narrative of the history of the family in the West portrays a process of transition from patriarchy to the conjugal nuclear family. Paternal authority over children beyond the childhood years weakens; arranged marriages give way to marriages of choice; individualism and female emancipation increase. Early-twentieth-century American writers, such as Frank Fetter, E.A. Ross, and Charles Horton Cooley, sketched these changes for the United States. In his classic study, World Revolution and Family Patterns (1963), William J. Goode sought to extend the depiction worldwide (the mixed record of Goode’s thesis is reviewed in the essay by Andrew J. Cherlin in the December 2012 issue of this journal). Typically the changes in the family have been seen as tied to the expansion of the market economy under industrialization. Yet at least in the United States the changes were arguably discernible even when the country was largely an agrarian society. They were remarked upon by Alexis de Tocqueville (1805–1859) in his American travels in 1831–32 and attributed to the influence of democracy. The first volume of Tocqueville’s major work, De la démocratie en Amérique (1835), is mainly a description of American political institutions; the second volume (1840), more abstract, examines how democratic values and practice bear on intellectual and social life. One chapter in the latter volume, "Influence of democracy on the family," is reprinted below in the recent Library of America translation by Arthur Goldhammer. Tocqueville’s comparison is always democracy with aristocracy, the latter represented by Europe and especially France (in the period of constitutional monarchy after Napoleon). In an aristocracy, society "knows only the father": the state relates to other family members only through him. In a democracy, "no such intermediary is necessary. In the eyes of the law, the father is merely a citizen older and wealthier than his sons." Without primogeniture there is a rough equality of status among children or at least among sons. And "relations between father and sons become more intimate and tender." Wives and daughters are barely mentioned in this chapter, but they are the subject of several subsequent chapters. In democratic America, says Tocqueville, "the social movement that is bringing son and father, servant and master, and, in general, inferior and superior closer to the same level is raising woman and will make her more and more the equal of man." The excerpt (Volume 2, Part III, Chapter 8) is reprinted from Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America: The Arthur Goldhammer Translation (The Library of America 2004), by permission of The Library of America, «www.loa.org». [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 159–164]

   

Book Reviews [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 165–167]

• U.S. Health in International Perspective: Shorter Lives, Poorer Health / Steven H. Woolf and Laudan Aron (eds.)
  Reviewed by John Bongaarts (offsite link)
  
  

Short Reviews [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 168–173]

• The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China / Fang Cai, John Giles, Philip O'Keefe, and Dewen Wang
• Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics / Jack A. Goldstone, Eric P. Kaufmann, and Monica Duffy Toft (eds.)
• Disasters Without Borders: The International Politics of Natural Disasters / John A. Hannigan
• The State and the Stork: The Population Debate and Policy Making in US History / Derek S. Hoff
• West African Migrations: Transnational and Global Pathways in a New Century / Mojúbàolú Olúfúnké Okome and Olufemi Vaughan (eds.)
• Africa Human Development Report 2012: Towards a Food Secure Future / United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Documents

• The US National Intelligence Council on Alternative Global Futures in 2030
  
  The United States National Intelligence Council, along with its classified reports (notably the National Intelligence Estimates), periodically engages in broad-based speculation on the world’s future—seeking to identify "key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a couple of decades into the future." The exercise is undertaken by an NIC study team in consultation with experts in academia and the private sector, both nationally and internationally. The results are published in an unclassified report series titled Global Trends. The most recent such report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, was released in December 2012. It is available in hard copy from the US Government Printing Office and online at http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends. An excerpt from the final section of this document is reproduced below. (Excerpts from prior Global Trends reports appeared in the Documents section of the March 2005 and March 2009 issues of PDR.) The 2030 report identifies four "megatrends" or driving forces for global change: growing individual empowerment resulting from poverty reduction, expansion of the global middle class, and improvements in education and health; diffusion of power among countries, especially with the further rise of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and, increasingly, the MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey); demographic change (population aging, international migration, urbanization); and increasing scarcity of food, water, and energy. Economic, political, and technological developments ("game-changers" in the report's usage) will mainly determine the global responses to these trends. However, in a novel feature, the report also explores possible surprises ("Black Swans") that could radically alter the outcomes, such as a global pandemic, abrupt climate change, or a political collapse in China. Finally, on the basis of its analysis, the study team constructed a number of scenarios describing "alternative worlds" in 2030: two representing what the team regarded as worst- and best-case outcomes and two intermediate scenarios. These scenarios are set out in the excerpt. [39, no. 1 (Mar 13): 175–179]

 

To read abstracts or search contents of previous volumes, visit Wiley Online Library (volumes 1999–2012) or JSTOR (volumes 1975–2010).

Population and Development Review

Population and Public Policy:
Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny
McNicoll, Bongaarts, and Churchill (eds.), 2012
A collection of 21 essays of interest to a broad range of readers in the social sciences and public affairs. Themes are: population renewal and intergenerational relations; low fertility and its consequences; public policy and its role in lowering high fertility; human demands on the natural environment; and population theory and measurement.
(downloadable contents)
vii + 340 pp., $24.95

Demographic Transition and Its Consequences
Lee and Reher (eds.), 2011
Explores aspects of the transitional and post-transition landscape from a variety of disciplinary perspectives, covering both modern industrial societies and emerging economies, and taking note of the circumstances of latecomers in the transition process. (downloadable contents)
vii + 275 pp., $13.50

Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth
Prskawetz, Bloom, and Lutz (eds.), 2008
Studies included cover the broad economic significance of the global aging of the work force. (more) (downloadable contents)
vii + 326 pp., $25.00

The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950–2050
Demeny and McNicoll (eds.), 2006
Explores the international political dimensions of the population explosion and its aftermath. (contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
viii + 288 pp., $21.00

Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives
Waite (ed.), 2004
Explores the economic, demographic, and epidemiological aspects of population aging trends and consequences. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 265 pp., $21.00

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives
Carey and Tuljapurkar (eds.), 2003
Explores the subject of the life span, both human and animal, by bringing together research conducted by scholars from many disciplines. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 293 pp., $18.00

Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis
Lutz, Prskawetz, and Sanderson (eds.), 2002
This book represents the first systematic collection of population–environment methodologies and includes eight essays by demographers, social scientists, and environmental scientists.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 251 pp., $18.00

Global Fertility Transition
Bulatao and Casterline (eds.), 2001
Explores the factors underlying fertility transition, analyzes recent trends, and considers the implications for future projections.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 340 pp., $18.00

Population and Economic Change in East Asia
Chu and Lee (eds.), 2000
This volume, which analyzes the interplay between economic and demographic trends in East Asia, is novel in treating population aging as an integral part of the region's demographic transition.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 320 pp., $15.00

Frontiers of Population Forecasting
Lutz, Vaupel, and Ahlburg (eds.), 1998
Reexamination of the procedures of population forecasting in response to emerging demands. Addresses key issues: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting?
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 199 pp., $15.00

Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories
Casterline, Lee, and Foote (eds.), 1996
Assessment of substantial and unappreciated changes in US fertility behavior during the past two decades, with new frameworks and theories for interpreting these changes.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 340 pp., $20.00

The New Politics of Population: Conflict and Consensus in Family Planning
Finkle and McIntosh (eds.), 1994
An examination of the major issues and actors—political and religious leaders, feminists, and others—and the events that have shaped global trends in family planning policies and programs in recent decades.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 276 pp.

Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options
Davis and Bernstam (eds.), 1990
Explores impending problems and interrelations between population trends, resource use, and environmental consequences.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xii + 421 pp.

Rural Development and Population: Institutions and Policy
McNicoll and Cain (eds.), 1989
Investigation of the ways in which the institutional configurations of societies influence the relationships between population dynamics and rural social and economic change.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 366 pp.

Population and Resources in Western Intellectual Traditions
Teitelbaum and Winter (eds.), 1988
An examination of the intersection of science and ideology in the development of Western thought on population, resources, and the environment since the industrial revolution.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 310 pp.

Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies
Davis, Bernstam, and Ricardo-Campbell (eds.), 1986
Systematic discussions of the demographic effects of below-replacement fertility with efforts to explain its social origins, to determine the likely societal consequences, and to assess potential policy responses.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
x + 360 pp.

Child Survival: Strategies for Research
Mosley and Chen (eds.), 1984
In all poor countries, malnutrition and infectious diseases are the major biological processes leading to child deaths; but the social, economic, and environmental determinants of the variations in these conditions in different societies are poorly understood. This supplement contains papers by specialists within two separate disciplines—demography and epidemiology—primarily concerned with investigating such topics.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 416 pp.

Income Distribution and the Family
Ben-Porath (ed.), 1982
Addresses the important question of how family composition and related demographic processes affect and are affected by the generation and distribution of income in developing countries, and examines the difficult technical and conceptual issues involved in analyzing these relationships.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 248 pp.

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Population and Development Review

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Population and Development Review

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