Abstract
Completing the demographic transition (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Bulatao,Rodolfo A.
Population and Development Review 25(3): 515-529
Publication date: 1999
Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions.
Get Involved
- Make a contribution to the Population Council
- Honor a loved one with a gift in their name
- Sign up to receive e-mail announcements
Connect
