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Abstract

Changing epidemiology of HIV in Mumbai: An application of the Asian epidemic model (PDF) 
Mishra,Ram Manohar; Dube,Madhulika; Sahu,Damodar; Saggurti,Niranjan; Pandey,Arvind
Global Journal of Health Science 4(5): 100-112
Publication date: 2012

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Background
Mumbai is one of the most populous and high HIV prevalence cities in India. It has witnessed substantial changes in HIV-risk behaviors and a decline in HIV prevalence among high-risk groups during the past decade.

Aim
To examine the changing pattern in the number of new HIV infections by transmission routes in Mumbai during 2000-2017.

Methods
We used the Asian Epidemic Model by dividing the adult population (aged 15 and above) into seven subgroups: brothel-based and non-brothel based female sex workers (FSWs), heterosexual clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men/transgendered people (MSM), injecting drug users (IDUs), general women and general men. The MSM subgroup included homosexual and bisexual men.

Results
New HIV infections among adults reduced by 86% during 2000-2010. The highest decline was among FSWs and their heterosexual clients (95%-98%), followed by MSM (82%), general women (77%), IDUs (51%) and general men (42%). Most new HIV infections during 2011-2017 are expected to occur among general women (1666) and general men (977) followed by MSM (715). Bisexual men were estimated to contribute about 14% of the new HIV infections among general women in 2010 and this proportion was estimated to increase to 19% in 2017.

Discussion
HIV prevention programs for MSM and the general population need to be strengthened. Ensuring early detection of HIV, and higher levels of consistent condom use by HIV-infected men and women are essential to prevent new HIV infections in future.

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