|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
May 2003 What Is Missing in Demographic Research? The United Nations projects that most of the world’s population growth over the next quarter-century will take place in the cities of developing countries. Experts from many fields—urban planners, economists, and international health experts—have been documenting patterns of change. Yet, as Population Council economist Mark Montgomery pointed out in August of 2002 to the Governing Board of the National Academy of Sciences, demographers seem to have virtually ignored this anticipated shift in world population.The last systematic assessment of the urban demography of less-developed countries was made more than 20 years ago. Since then, according to Montgomery, demographers have focused on other, arguably less crucial aspects of demographic behavior, such as fertility studies and micro-studies of birth intervals in families. In 1999 the Committee on Population of the National Academy had created a panel on urbanization in less-developed countries to address the puzzling neglect of such dramatic population change. (Montgomery co-chaired the panel with Richard Stren, a political scientist at the University of Toronto.) The 14-member international panel was drawn from the fields of economics, political science, sociology, health, anthropology, geography, and urban studies and met over the course of the next three years. The book that grew out of these meetings—entitled Cities Transformed, to be published by the National Academy Press in May 2003—examines the effect of urban life on fertility, mortality, child health, migration, and sexual behavior. The book’s main message is that if demographers are to make a contribution to urban research, their research tools must be updated. Although important in many respects, the two main sources of demographic information—the UN population data by city published in World Urbanization Prospects, and the USAID-funded Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)—do not provide adequate information for demographers to analyze changes occurring in the smaller cities of developing countries where nearly half of the urban population live. World Urbanization Prospects examines only large cities (with populations over 750,000 people) in any detail. DHS data do not include geographic indicators to link information to neighborhoods and cities, and these surveys are limited in their usefulness in measuring access to water supply and other urban services. The authors of Cities Transformed point out that demographers have tended to neglect smaller cities. Notably underserved in terms of water supply, electricity, and good sanitation, populations in the smaller cities are also less educated than those of larger cities; fertility rates are higher; and measures of reproductive and child health, as a rule, are worse. Residents of cities generally have higher standards of living than rural residents. Yet, the urban poor living in slums and shantytowns are decidedly worse off than their peers in the countryside. Among other things, the urban poor have greater unmet needs for contraception than do other urban residents. As the National Academy panel underscored, the need for accurate population data is growing even more acute as countries decentralize their health programs and governmental systems. State, regional, and municipal governments, along with nongovernmental organizations and the private sector, are being given many functions that were formerly performed by national governments. Practical application of the findings of demographic research holds the key to good local policymaking. Offsite Link
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
