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Population and Development Review

September 2013, Vol. 39, No. 3 (Full article access available to subscribers)

Articles

• China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census / Yong Cai
  
  China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country’s rural-urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old-age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 371–396)
  
  
• Economic Growth and Child Undernutrition in sub-Saharan Africa / Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen, Sebastian Vollmer
  
  Despite recent improvements in economic performance, undernutrition rates in sub-Saharan Africa appear to have improved much less and rather inconsistently across the continent. We examine to what extent there is an empirical linkage between income growth and reductions of child undernutrition in Africa. We pool all DHS surveys for African countries, control for other correlates of undernutrition, and add country-level GDP per capita. We find that a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with 1.5 to 1.7 percent lower odds of being stunted, 2.8 to 3.0 percent lower odds of being underweight, and 3.5 to 4.0 percent lower odds of being wasted. Other drivers of undernutrition, including relative socioeconomic status and mother's education and her nutritional status, are quantitatively more important. This suggests that further increases in GDP will have only a modest impact on undernutrition and broader interventions are required to accelerate progress. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 397–412)
  
  
• What Is Urban? Comparing a Satellite View with the Demographic and Health Surveys / Audrey Dorélien, Deborah Balk, Megan Todd
  
  Appraisal of urbanization trends is limited by the lack of a globally consistent definition of what is meant by urban. This article seeks to identify and explain differences in the definition of "urbanness" as used in two largely distinct research communities. We compare the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), which defines urban areas based primarily on satellite imagery of nighttime lights, to the urban classification found in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which relies on the urban definitions of individual countries' national statistical offices. We analyze the distribution of DHS clusters falling within and outside of GRUMP urban extents and examine select characteristics of these clusters (notably, household electrification). Our results show a high degree of agreement between the two data sources on what areas are considered urban; furthermore, when used together, GRUMP and DHS data reveal urban characteristics that are not evident when one data source is used independently. GRUMP urban extents are overwhelmingly medium and large highly electrified localities. DHS clusters that are classified as non-urban but that fall within GRUMP extents tend to be peri-urban areas. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 413–439)
  
  
• Education and Cohabitation in Britain: A Return to Traditional Patterns? / Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, Éva Beaujouan
  
  Cohabitation is sometimes thought of as being inversely associated with education, but in Britain a more complex picture emerges. Educational group differences in cohabitation vary by age, time period, cohort, and indicator used. Well-educated women pioneered cohabitation in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s. In the most recent cohorts, however, the less educated have exceeded the best educated in the proportions ever having cohabited at young ages. But the main difference by education currently seems largely a matter of timing—that is, the less educated start cohabiting earlier than the best educated. In Britain, educational differentials in cohabitation appear to be reinstating longstanding social patterns in the level and timing of marriage. Taking partnerships as a whole, social differentials have been fairly stable. Following a period of innovation and diffusion, there is much continuity with the past. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 441–458)
  
  
• A Cognitive–Social Model of Fertility Intentions / Christine A. Bachrach, S. Philip Morgan
  
  We examine the use and value of fertility intentions against the backdrop of theory and research in the cognitive and social sciences. First, we draw on recent brain and cognition research to contextualize fertility intentions within a broader set of conscious and unconscious mechanisms that contribute to mental function. Next, we integrate this research with social theory. Our conceptualizations suggest that people do not necessarily have fertility intentions; they form them only when prompted by specific situations. Intention formation draws on the current situation and on schemas of childbearing and parenthood learned through previous experience, imbued by affect, and organized by self-representation. Using this conceptualization, we review apparently discordant knowledge about the value of fertility intentions in predicting fertility. Our analysis extends and deepens existing explanations for the weak predictive validity of fertility intentions at the individual level and provides a social-cognitive explanation for why intentions predict as well as they do. When focusing on the predictive power of intentions at the aggregate level, our conceptualizations lead us to focus on how social structures frustrate or facilitate intentions and how the structural environment contributes to the formation of reported intentions in the first place. Our analysis suggests that existing measures of fertility intentions are useful but to varying extents and in many cases despite their failure to capture what they seek to measure. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 459–485)
  
  

Notes and Commentary

• The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies / Mathias Czaika, Hein de Haas
  
  This article elaborates a conceptual framework for assessing the character and effectiveness of immigration policies. It argues that, to a considerable extent, the public and academic controversy concerning this issue is spurious because of fuzzy definitions of policy effectiveness, stemming from confusion between (1) policy discourses, (2) policies on paper, (3) policy implementation, and (4) policy impacts. The article distinguishes three policy gaps: the discrepancy between public discourses and policies on paper (discursive gap); the disparity between policies on paper and implemented policies (implementation gap); and the extent to which implemented policies affect migration (efficacy gap). Although implemented policies seem to be the correct yardstick to assess policy effectiveness, in practice the (generally more pronounced) discourses are often used as a benchmark. This can lead to an overestimation of policy failure. Existing empirical studies suggest that policies significantly affect the targeted migration flows, but they crucially fail to assess the relative importance of policies in comparison to other migration determinants, including non-migration policies, as well as the hypothetical occurrence of unintended categorical, spatial, inter-temporal, and reverse flow "substitution" effects. Evidence on such effects is still scarce, showing the need for more empirically informed insights about the short- and long-term effects of migration policies. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 487–508)
  
  

Data and Perspectives

• The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force: A Microsimulation Projection / Alain Bélanger, Nicolas Bastien
  
  This article charts the future transformations of the Canadian labor force population using a microsimulation projection model. The model takes into account differentials in demographic behavior and labor force participation of individuals according to their ethnocultural and educational characteristics. As a result of a rapid fall in fertility, the Canadian population is expected to age rapidly as baby boomers start to retire from the labor market in large numbers. In response to declining fertility, Canada raised its immigration intake at the end of the 1980s, and immigration is now the main driver of Canadian population growth. At the same time, immigrants to Canada are becoming more culturally diversified. Over the last half century, the main source regions have shifted from Europe to Asia. Results of the microsimulation show that Canada's labor force population will continue to increase, but at a slower rate than in the recent past. By 2031, almost one third of the country's total labor force could be foreign-born, and almost all its future increase is expected to be among university graduates, while the less-educated labor force is projected to decline. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 509–525)
  
  

Archives

• Arsène Dumont on Legislative Measures to Remedy Depopulation in France
  
  Continued below-replacement fertility and the nearing prospect in some regions of actual population decline are increasingly matters of concern for European social policy. Yet measures aimed at raising fertility have a dubious record of success. For example, a recent assessment of Germany's efforts to do so, entailing generous cash transfers to couples with young children, roundly criticized them as ineffective. The measures were based, it was argued, on an outdated view of the family. (See the account of the study and the ensuing political controversy in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 6 June 2013.)
  
  The finding that many policies are ineffective would have come as no surprise to Arsène Dumont (1849–1902). A student of Louis Bertillon and precursor of Adolphe Landry, Dumont was once called the most original of nineteenth-century demographers. He devoted the last twenty years of his life to documenting, analyzing, and seeking a cure for "oliganthropy"—literally, the shortage of population—in France. His signature work, Dépopulation et civilisation, appeared in 1890. First trained as a lawyer, Dumont was simultaneously an accomplished statistician and an excellent ethnographer, but his real talent was as a polemicist. His prose seldom neglected an opportunity for excess.
  
  Dumont was particularly concerned by the low fertility of the bourgeoisie, which he blamed on the phenomenon with which his name is today most closely connected, "social capillarity." Simply put, Dumont ascribed to all persons the urge to better themselves, to be upwardly mobile. Children were an impediment to social advancement. It was individuals' desire to rise, in cultural and intellectual as well as material terms, that led to the limitation of births, in large part through late marriage, as well as to the draining of labor and capital from the countryside into the cities, particularly Paris.
  
  Much of Dumont's proposed policy response to social capillarity and its effects reads today as romantic pastoralism, since it involved tying rural inhabitants to the soil in model farm villages that he described in idealized terms. However, in the closing chapter of Dépopulation et civilisation, entitled "Possible legislative actions," he outlined a broader policy agenda. Some of his prescriptions, such as the suppression of monastic life (he loathed religion), are anachronistic, but others, such as promoting marriage and improving the health of infants and children through better working conditions and a fairer tax system, have a modern tone. It is typical of Dumont's style—he never made a point without trying to refute it or cautioning that, while it was plausible, demography had yet to prove it—that he admits in the closing paragraphs that the effectiveness of the proposed measures is limited by the fact that they benefit the poor, already numerous, rather than the middle class and the elite.
  
  The excerpt is from Dépopulation et civilisation: Étude démographie (Paris: Lecrosnier et Babé, 1890), Chapter 27. The translation is by Landis MacKellar. (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 527–533)

   

Book Reviews (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 535–543)

• The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations / Ian Morris
  Reviewed by Cameron Campbell
• Harvesting the Biosphere: What We Have Taken from Nature / Vaclav Smil
  Reviewed by Gerald C. Nelson
• Registration and Recognition: Documenting the Person in World History / Keith Breckenridge and Simon Szreter (eds.)
  Reviewed by Geoffrey McNicoll
  
  

Short Reviews (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 544–549)

• The Children of Eve: Population and Well-being in History / Louis P. Cain and Donald G. Paterson
• mHealth in Practice: Mobile Technology for Health Promotion in the Developing World / Jonathan Donner and Patricia Mechael (eds.)
• World Population Policies: Their Origin, Evolution and Impact / John F. May
• Counting Populations, Understanding Societies: Towards an Interpretive Demography / Véronique Petit
• Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives / James P. Smith and Malay Majmundar (eds.)
• Human Development Report 2013: The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World / United Nations Development Programme

Documents

• The United Nations 2012 Population Projections
  
  The latest biennial series of population estimates and projections issued by the United Nations Population Division—known as the 2012 Revision—was released in June 2013. The series is the most widely used statistical source for international demographic comparisons. The new estimates are advertised as taking into account the results of the 2010 round of censuses, resulting in some adjustments to the 2010 Revision's baseline figures on total populations and vital rates and, in turn, changes in projection assumptions and projection outputs. Selected results of this exercise, taken from the publication World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables (and from the press release announcing it), are reprinted by permission below.
  
  Like the 2010 Revision (excerpted in the Documents section of PDR 37, no. 2), the 2012 projections extend to 2100. In the medium variant, fertility in each country is assumed to converge by 2100 to a level mostly in the range of 1.8–2.2. (The worldwide average for 2100 is 2.0.) Hence in currently low-fertility countries, the convergence is from below. The medium projections are bracketed by low and high variants, reflecting assumed fertility levels of .5 children per woman below or above the medium.
  
  Comparisons of the last three medium projection series for world population (in millions) are as follows:
  
  

  Projection series	2000	2050	2100
  2012 Revision	6,128	9,551	10,854
  2010 Revision	6,123	9,306	10,125
  2008 Revision	6,115	9,150	n.a.

  
  For 2050, the 2012 Revision is higher than the 2010 Revision by 245 million; for 2100, it is higher by 729 million. (The 2012 low-variant trajectory peaks at 8.34 billion around 2050 and drops back to 6.75 billion by 2100. The equivalent numbers in the 2010 projections are a peak of 8.1 billion and an end-century total of 6.2 billion.)
  
  The higher projected world populations in the latest medium-variant series are mainly traceable to altered demographic expectations for sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting evidence of recent "stalling" of fertility decline in some countries. The projected totals for sub-Saharan Africa (in millions) in the 2012 and 2010 series are:
  
  

  Projection series	2000	2050	2100
  2012 Revision	639	2,074	3,816
  2010 Revision	669	1,960	3,358

  
  In Nigeria, for example, the differences are an additional 50 million in 2050 (440 million rather than 390 million) and 184 million in 2100 (914 million rather than 730 million).
  
  Fertility estimation in China has been a contentious matter in recent years, with current levels set variously from 1.2 to 1.8. Some observers discern an emerging consensus among experts at near the middle of this range. Yong Cai (in this issue) draws on several data sources to argue for a 2010 level of "around 1.5 or lower." The 2012 Revision's medium-variant assumption for China reaches its lowest point (1.55) in 2000–05, but thereafter slowly rises—to 1.66 in 2010–15 and 1.8 by mid-century. The corresponding low-variant levels are 1.41 in 2010–15, 1.2 in 2020–25, and 1.3 at mid-century. The difference between the medium and low assumptions corresponds to a difference of 176 million in the projected population totals by 2050. (By 2100, the difference has risen to 480 million—totals of 1.1 billion versus 0.6 billion.)
  
  Assumptions about fertility many decades ahead are of course highly speculative. Expectations that the currently low-fertility countries will edge back to near replacement levels by the end of the century might well be doubted, suggesting that the low-variant series could be a more plausible demographic future. For countries still early in their fertility transitions, the built-in assumption of continued fertility decline is also far from assured, as recent evidence of stalling can attest. The caveat applies particularly to the 49 least developed countries (a UN designation), where the medium-variant assumption shows fertility dropping from 4.5 in 2005–10 to 2.9 in 2045–50 and 2.1 in 2095–2100.
  
  On migration, Europe and the US are the major recipients, with current net inflows estimated at 1.8 million and 1 million per year respectively. In the absence of a basis for any particular alternative, migration in both cases is assumed to tail off to zero over the second half of the century. The full data series is readily accessible online at the Population Division’s website: «www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index/shtml». (Population and Development Review 2013; 39[3]: 551–555)
  
  

To read abstracts or search contents of previous volumes, visit Wiley Online Library (volumes 1999–2012) or JSTOR (volumes 1975–2010).

Population and Development Review

Population and Public Policy:
Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny
McNicoll, Bongaarts, and Churchill (eds.), 2012
A collection of 21 essays of interest to a broad range of readers in the social sciences and public affairs. Themes are: population renewal and intergenerational relations; low fertility and its consequences; public policy and its role in lowering high fertility; human demands on the natural environment; and population theory and measurement.
(downloadable contents)
vii + 340 pp., $24.95

Demographic Transition and Its Consequences
Lee and Reher (eds.), 2011
Explores aspects of the transitional and post-transition landscape from a variety of disciplinary perspectives, covering both modern industrial societies and emerging economies, and taking note of the circumstances of latecomers in the transition process. (downloadable contents)
vii + 275 pp., $13.50

Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth
Prskawetz, Bloom, and Lutz (eds.), 2008
Studies included cover the broad economic significance of the global aging of the work force. (downloadable contents)
vii + 326 pp., $25.00

The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950–2050
Demeny and McNicoll (eds.), 2006
Explores the international political dimensions of the population explosion and its aftermath. (contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
viii + 288 pp., $21.00

Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives
Waite (ed.), 2004
Explores the economic, demographic, and epidemiological aspects of population aging trends and consequences. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 265 pp., $21.00

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives
Carey and Tuljapurkar (eds.), 2003
Explores the subject of the life span, both human and animal, by bringing together research conducted by scholars from many disciplines. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 293 pp., $18.00

Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis
Lutz, Prskawetz, and Sanderson (eds.), 2002
This book represents the first systematic collection of population–environment methodologies and includes eight essays by demographers, social scientists, and environmental scientists.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 251 pp., $18.00

Global Fertility Transition
Bulatao and Casterline (eds.), 2001
Explores the factors underlying fertility transition, analyzes recent trends, and considers the implications for future projections.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 340 pp., $18.00

Population and Economic Change in East Asia
Chu and Lee (eds.), 2000
This volume, which analyzes the interplay between economic and demographic trends in East Asia, is novel in treating population aging as an integral part of the region's demographic transition.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 320 pp., $15.00

Frontiers of Population Forecasting
Lutz, Vaupel, and Ahlburg (eds.), 1998
Reexamination of the procedures of population forecasting in response to emerging demands. Addresses key issues: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting?
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 199 pp., $15.00

Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories
Casterline, Lee, and Foote (eds.), 1996
Assessment of substantial and unappreciated changes in US fertility behavior during the past two decades, with new frameworks and theories for interpreting these changes.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 340 pp., $20.00

The New Politics of Population: Conflict and Consensus in Family Planning
Finkle and McIntosh (eds.), 1994
An examination of the major issues and actors—political and religious leaders, feminists, and others—and the events that have shaped global trends in family planning policies and programs in recent decades.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 276 pp.

Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options
Davis and Bernstam (eds.), 1990
Explores impending problems and interrelations between population trends, resource use, and environmental consequences.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xii + 421 pp.

Rural Development and Population: Institutions and Policy
McNicoll and Cain (eds.), 1989
Investigation of the ways in which the institutional configurations of societies influence the relationships between population dynamics and rural social and economic change.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 366 pp.

Population and Resources in Western Intellectual Traditions
Teitelbaum and Winter (eds.), 1988
An examination of the intersection of science and ideology in the development of Western thought on population, resources, and the environment since the industrial revolution.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 310 pp.

Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies
Davis, Bernstam, and Ricardo-Campbell (eds.), 1986
Systematic discussions of the demographic effects of below-replacement fertility with efforts to explain its social origins, to determine the likely societal consequences, and to assess potential policy responses.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
x + 360 pp.

Child Survival: Strategies for Research
Mosley and Chen (eds.), 1984
In all poor countries, malnutrition and infectious diseases are the major biological processes leading to child deaths; but the social, economic, and environmental determinants of the variations in these conditions in different societies are poorly understood. This supplement contains papers by specialists within two separate disciplines—demography and epidemiology—primarily concerned with investigating such topics.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 416 pp.

Income Distribution and the Family
Ben-Porath (ed.), 1982
Addresses the important question of how family composition and related demographic processes affect and are affected by the generation and distribution of income in developing countries, and examines the difficult technical and conceptual issues involved in analyzing these relationships.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 248 pp.

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