Population Council Research that makes a difference

Population and Development Review

December 2012, Vol. 38, No. 4

Articles

• Goode’s World Revolution and Family Patterns: A Reconsideration at Fifty Years / Andrew J. Cherlin
  
  Fifty years ago, William J. Goode published World Revolution and Family Patterns, a highly influential study of international family change. Goode’s main thesis, that, owing to industrialization, family patterns around the world would come to resemble the mid-twentieth-century Western conjugal family, was incorrect. For one thing, that model collapsed in the West soon afterward. But Goode’s secondary hypotheses have proven to be correct in at least some regions of the world: that parents’ control over their children’s family lives would decline; and that the spread of the ideology of the conjugal family would occur even in countries where extensive industrialization had not taken place. Moreover, it is worth understanding why Goode was sometimes incorrect and what forces (such as globalization) he did not foresee. It is also worth examining more recent writings on world family change by leading scholars. This article provides a reconsideration of the book’s impact a half-century after it appeared. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 577–607] (offsite link*)
  
  
• Trends in the Economic Independence of Young Adults in the United States: 1973–2007 / Maria Sironi, Frank F. Furstenberg
  
  One of the major milestones of adulthood is achieving economic independence. Without sufficient income, young people have difficulty leaving their childhood home, establishing a union, or having children—or they do so at great peril. Using the National Longitudinal Survey, this article compares the employment and economic circumstances of young adults aged 22–30 in 1973, 1987, and 2007, and their possible determinants. The results show that achieving economic independence is more difficult now than it was in the late 1980s and especially in the 1970s, even for the older age groups (age 27–28). The deterioration is more evident among men. From the 1970s there has been convergence in the trajectories for the achievement of economic self-sufficiency between men and women, suggesting that the increase in gender parity, especially in education and labor market outcomes, is making their opportunities to be employed and to earn good wages more similar. This convergence also suggests that union formation increasingly may depend on a capacity to combine men’s and women’s wages. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 610–630] (offsite link*)
  
  
• Relative Cohort Size, Relative Income, and Married Women’s Labor Force Participation: United States, 1968–2010 / Diane J. Macunovich
  
  Relative cohort size—the ratio of young adults to prime-age adults—and relative income— the income of young adults relative to their material aspirations—have experienced substantial changes over the past 40 years. Results here show that changes in relative cohort size explain about 60 percent of the declines in women’s starting wage—both relative and absolute—in 1968–82, and 97 percent of its increase in 1982–2001. Relative income is hypothesized to affect a number of behavioral choices by young adults, including marriage, childbearing, and female labor force participation, as young people strive to achieve their desired standard of living. Older family income—the denominator in a relative income variable—increased by 59 percent between 1968 and 2000, and then declined by 9 percent. Its changes explain 47 percent of the increase in the labor force participation of white married women in their first 15 years out of school between 1970 and 1990, and 38 percent of the increase in hours worked in the same period. The study makes use of individual-level measures of labor force participation and employs the lagged income of older families in a woman’s year-staterace- education group to instrument parental income and hence material aspirations. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 631–648] (offsite link*)
  
  
• On the Role of Human Development in the Arab Spring / Randall Kuhn
  
  This essay traces the effects of human development on political change, focusing on the events of the Arab Spring. Over the past generation, the Arab world experienced rapid progress in human development outcomes, including declining child mortality, extended schooling, and increasing status of women. These development gains penetrated most Arab states and subpopulations. The pathway from human development to political mobilization rests on three interlinked propositions. First, basic human development led to a significant increase in population needs and expectations, creating new policy challenges and reducing public dependency on regimes. Second, human development and new information technologies created new opportunities for political protest. Finally, the collective realization of human development gains resulted in new values conducive to regime change. Each proposition builds on theories of human capital accumulation over the life course that isolate the human dimension of national development. I provide provisional support for these pathways through cross-regional comparison and evidence from specific populations and sub-populations. I highlight the need for new study designs and datasets that further test this model. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 649–683] (offsite link*)
  
  

Notes and Commentary

• Geopolitical Aspects of Population in the Twenty-First Century / Paul Demeny
  
  Over the second half of the twentieth century rapid population growth in the less developed countries has redrawn the global demographic map. Many once-poor countries have also experienced strong economic growth, which in combination with the demographic change has yielded marked shifts in the world’s economic balance, with far-reaching geopolitical implications. At the same time, low fertility in much of the developed world presages a future of population shrinkage, accompanied by pronounced population aging. In per capita terms, the economic advantages of the developed countries will likely persist for many years, but their actual and potential falls in population may accentuate their loss of relative economic power and eventually lead to marginalization of their international standing and influence. Preventing population shrinkage will be an urgent task for them, requiring either large-scale immigration (likely to be ruled out) or raising the birth rate. Existing pro-family policies have had at best modest effects on fertility levels. Two novel approaches are described that would plausibly have greater impact. One would counteract the disproportionate influence of older voters in the electorate by granting voting rights to all citizens, allowing custodial parents to vote on behalf of their children. The second would reform the public pension system to reestablish the link between the financial security of retired persons and the number of children they have raised to productive adulthood. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 685–705] (offsite link*)
  
  

Data and Perspectives

• The Family Context of Cohabitation and Single Motherhood in Latin America / Albert Esteve, Joan García-Román, Ron Lesthaeghe
  
  The dramatic shift from marriage to cohabitation during the last four decades in most Latin American countries, even among the upper social strata, begs the question as to the living arrangements of cohabiting couples and single mothers. The new "Family Interrelationships Variables" in the IPUM S samples of Latin American censuses facilitated the construction of an enlarged LIPRO typology. LIPRO classifies individuals with respect to the types of households in which they are living. The results indicate that cohabiting women and single mothers aged 25 to 29 are frequently found in their parental households or in other extended or composite households. However, there are large variations depending on country and education. For instance, cohabitation is mainly in nuclear households, as in Europe, in Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Argentina. It occurs mainly in the context of extended households in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Cuba. Mexico and Chile occupy intermediate positions. In all instances co-residence of cohabiting couples with other kin drops significantly upon the transition to parenthood, at which point there are no longer any differences between cohabiting and married couples. Single mothers, however, continue to co-reside in extended or composite households to a larger extent, and this holds particularly for the better-educated among them. This analysis illustrates that cohabitation of the traditional type and of the "Second Demographic Transition" type are found alongside each other, with one being more important than the other depending on country and on educational level or social class within each country. [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 707–727] (offsite link*)
  
  

Archives

• John D. Rockefeller 3rd on a Citizen’s Perspective on Population
  
  2012 marks the 60th anniversary of the Population Council. Its founder was John D. Rockefeller 3rd. During his lifetime, 1906–1978, his interests and his institution building and philanthropic activities were varied and far-ranging. He was founder of the Asia Society, played a leading role in the development of the Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York City, and was influential in shaping the programs of the Rockefeller family foundations. His attention to issues of population developed early and was enduring, in part stimulated by his extensive travels in Asia. In March 1952 he convened a two-day conference in Williamsburg, Virginia under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences to consider issues related to population. At that time, there was wide skepticism the subject was appropriate for public discourse, but Rockefeller was convinced of its importance. In November 1952, in line with the Williamsburg deliberations, he established the Population Council as a research organization focused on studying population change and its relationship to broader issues affecting human welfare. Rockefeller was its first president, serving in that capacity until 1957, then remaining as Chairman of the Council’s Board of Trustees and later with close but less formal ties to it for the rest of his life. An address that Rockefeller delivered in April 1960 at a conference titled "A new look on the population crisis," organized by the Dallas Council on World Affairs (now the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth), offers an especially instructive insight into his thinking about population issues and about his approach to problem-solving in that domain. He cautions against seeing population primarily as a problem, "overlooking the high promise and rich potential that population holds." His central emphasis, anticipating views that later became mainstream—and were to be reiterated in his notable speech at the Bucharest World Population Conference in 1974 (printed in PDR 4(3))—is on the importance of seeing the goal of population policy as the enrichment of human life, not as its restriction. "Large populations are not necessarily undesirable," he asserts. "People, after all, are a nation’s finest resource, its most treasured asset." People’s needs are more than for bread alone—spiritual and aesthetic rewards are also important. Acquiring proper information about such issues takes time and effort—a condition for having a positive perspective on population questions. Moreover, concern should not be solely with the problems of other nations, he warned his audience: "In our own country we have paid inadequate attention to the pressures and strains of population change which no one who lives in our cities or suburbs can fail to recognize." [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 729–734] (offsite link*)

   

Book Reviews [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 735–743]

• The Predictable Surprise: The Unraveling of the U.S. Retirement System / Sylvester J. Schieber Reviewed by Landis MacKellar (offsite link*)
  
  

Short Reviews [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 743–749]

• Water: Asia’s New Battleground / Brahma Chellaney (offsite link*)
• The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700 / Roderick Floud, Robert W. Fogel, Bernard Harris, and Sok Chul Hong (offsite link*)
• Invisible Men: Mass Incarceration and the Myth of Black Progress / Becky Pettit (offsite link*)
• Migration and Climate Change / Étienne Piguet, Antoine Pécoud, and Paul de Guchteneire (eds.) (offsite link*)
• The Malthusian Moment: Global Population Growth and the Birth of American Environmentalism / Thomas Robertson (offsite link*)
• The Demography and Epidemiology of Human Health and Aging / Jacob S. Siegel (offsite link*)
• War and Conflict in Africa / Paul D. Williams (offsite link*)

Documents [38, no. 4 (Dec 12): 751–755]

• The World Bank on Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities
  
  The damaging flooding experienced by New York City and neighboring built-up coastal regions in the United States caused by Hurricane Sandy in November 2012 was a dramatic demonstration of the vulnerability of these low-lying areas to extreme weather events. Similar evidence of vulnerability can be drawn from the devastating floods in Bangkok in 2011 and in Manila in 2009. An estimated 13 percent (around 470 million) of the world’s urban population lives in low-lying coastal areas; most of the world’s megacities (i.e., cities of over 10 million population) lie on coasts or deltas. Many of the most vulnerable large cities are Asian: in addition to Bangkok and Manila, they include Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Jakarta, Kolkata (Calcutta), Mumbai, and Shanghai. Climate change, through sea-level rise and more severe weather, is increasing the flooding risks faced by city residents at the same time that continued urban growth increases the populations at risk. (Flooding has contributing factors aside from climate change, notably land subsidence from overuse of groundwater and deforestation of upland watersheds.) It is apparent that measures to reduce vulnerability are urgently needed. A recent World Bank report summarizes case studies of three megacity situations: Manila, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), and Bangkok, appraising risks over the period to 2050 and plans for amelioration. It projects the effects of two CO2 emission trajectories taken from IPCC scenarios—A1F1 (or A2) and B1 (see PDR 27 (1), pp. 203–208)—corresponding to high and low forecast temperature increases and calculates the economic costs of damage. It calls for protective measures both through "hardening" of infrastructure and through better ecosystem management. The report, Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities, was prepared in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency and was issued in September 2010—that is, before the Bangkok flood. (offsite link*)

 

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Population and Development Review

Population and Public Policy:
Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny
McNicoll, Bongaarts, and Churchill (eds.), Forthcoming 2013 (contents)

Demographic Transition and Its Consequences
Lee and Reher (eds.), 2011
Explores aspects of the transitional and post-transition landscape from a variety of disciplinary perspectives, covering both modern industrial societies and emerging economies, and taking note of the circumstances of latecomers in the transition process. (contents)
vii + 275 pp., $13.50

Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth
Prskawetz, Bloom, and Lutz (eds.), 2008
Studies included cover the broad economic significance of the global aging of the work force. (more) (contents)
vii + 326 pp., $25.00

The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950–2050
Demeny and McNicoll (eds.), 2006
Explores the international political dimensions of the population explosion and its aftermath. (contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
viii + 288 pp., $21.00

Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives
Waite (ed.), 2004
Explores the economic, demographic, and epidemiological aspects of population aging trends and consequences. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 265 pp., $21.00

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives
Carey and Tuljapurkar (eds.), 2003
Explores the subject of the life span, both human and animal, by bringing together research conducted by scholars from many disciplines. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 293 pp., $18.00

Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis
Lutz, Prskawetz, and Sanderson (eds.), 2002
This book represents the first systematic collection of population–environment methodologies and includes eight essays by demographers, social scientists, and environmental scientists.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 251 pp., $18.00

Global Fertility Transition
Bulatao and Casterline (eds.), 2001
Explores the factors underlying fertility transition, analyzes recent trends, and considers the implications for future projections.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 340 pp., $18.00

Population and Economic Change in East Asia
Chu and Lee (eds.), 2000
This volume, which analyzes the interplay between economic and demographic trends in East Asia, is novel in treating population aging as an integral part of the region's demographic transition.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 320 pp., $15.00

Frontiers of Population Forecasting
Lutz, Vaupel, and Ahlburg (eds.), 1998
Reexamination of the procedures of population forecasting in response to emerging demands. Addresses key issues: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting?
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 199 pp., $15.00

Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories
Casterline, Lee, and Foote (eds.), 1996
Assessment of substantial and unappreciated changes in US fertility behavior during the past two decades, with new frameworks and theories for interpreting these changes.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 340 pp., $20.00

The New Politics of Population: Conflict and Consensus in Family Planning
Finkle and McIntosh (eds.), 1994
An examination of the major issues and actors—political and religious leaders, feminists, and others—and the events that have shaped global trends in family planning policies and programs in recent decades.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 276 pp.

Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options
Davis and Bernstam (eds.), 1990
Explores impending problems and interrelations between population trends, resource use, and environmental consequences.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xii + 421 pp.

Rural Development and Population: Institutions and Policy
McNicoll and Cain (eds.), 1989
Investigation of the ways in which the institutional configurations of societies influence the relationships between population dynamics and rural social and economic change.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 366 pp.

Population and Resources in Western Intellectual Traditions
Teitelbaum and Winter (eds.), 1988
An examination of the intersection of science and ideology in the development of Western thought on population, resources, and the environment since the industrial revolution.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 310 pp.

Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies
Davis, Bernstam, and Ricardo-Campbell (eds.), 1986
Systematic discussions of the demographic effects of below-replacement fertility with efforts to explain its social origins, to determine the likely societal consequences, and to assess potential policy responses.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
x + 360 pp.

Child Survival: Strategies for Research
Mosley and Chen (eds.), 1984
In all poor countries, malnutrition and infectious diseases are the major biological processes leading to child deaths; but the social, economic, and environmental determinants of the variations in these conditions in different societies are poorly understood. This supplement contains papers by specialists within two separate disciplines—demography and epidemiology—primarily concerned with investigating such topics.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 416 pp.

Income Distribution and the Family
Ben-Porath (ed.), 1982
Addresses the important question of how family composition and related demographic processes affect and are affected by the generation and distribution of income in developing countries, and examines the difficult technical and conceptual issues involved in analyzing these relationships.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 248 pp.

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Population and Development Review

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