Brian J. L. Berry, Lloyd Viel Berkner Regental Professor and Professor of Political Economy, School of Social Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas An exceptionally early and rapid fertility decline was achieved in Concord, Massachusetts by 1815. This decline was succeeded by a new demographic regime characterized by remarkable cyclical responsiveness to macroeconomic and macropolitical events. The evidence for declining fertility during the eighteenth century is consistent with so-called Malthusian-Frontier explanations of colonial-era demography, whereas the nineteenth-century responsiveness to economic and political change reveals a much earlier onset of Easterlin fertility cycles than has previously been postulated. The transition from the first to the second regime followed the emergence of a market economy in rural Massachusetts in the decade after the American Revolution. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 207-229]
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Bruce A. Carnes, Scientist, Center for Mechanistic Biology and Biotechnology, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois
S. Jay Olshansky, Research Associate, Department of Medicine, University of Chicago
Douglas Grahn, Senior Scientist, Center for Mechanistic Biology and Biotechnology, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general “law of mortality” from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if comparisons of mortality are based instead on “intrinsic” causes of death (i.e., deaths that reflect the basic biology of the organism), then age patterns of mortality consistent with the historical concept of a law might be revealed. Using data on laboratory animals and humans, they demonstrate that age patterns of intrinsic mortality overlap when graphed on a biologically comparable time scale. These results are consistent with the existence of a law of mortality following sexual maturity, as originally asserted by Benjamin Gompertz and Raymond Pearl. The societal, medical, and research implications of such a law are discussed. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 231-264]
Children’s Schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Fathers, Mothers, and Others
Cynthia B. Lloyd, Senior Associate and Director, Social Science Research, the Population Council
Ann K. Blanc, Coordinator for Demographic Analysis, Demographic and Health Surveys Program, Macro International, Calverton, Maryland The article examines the determinants of children’s school enrollment and completion of primary grade four--one of UNICEF’s key indicators of social progress--in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the role of parents and other household members in providing children with educational and residential support. While in most of these countries a substantial majority of 10-14-year-old children are currently enrolled in school, many fewer children by this age have attained a minimum of a fourth grade education, primarily due to late ages of entry into school and slow progress from grade to grade. The resources of a child’s residential household--in particular the education of the household head and the household standard of living--are determining factors in explaining variations among children in these aspects of schooling. By contrast, a child’s biological parents appear to play a less critical role, as demonstrated by comparing the educational record of orphans with that of children whose parents are still living. Furthermore, children living in female-headed households have better school outcomes than children living in male-headed households, when households with similar resources are compared. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 265-298]
Age at Marriage and the First Birth Interval: The Emerging Change in Sexual Behavior Among Young Couples in China
Wang Feng, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Fellow, Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu
Yang Quanhe, Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer, Division of Birth Defects and Disabilities, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta (at the time the article was written, he was with the Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu) Rising age at first marriage and shortening of the interval between marriage and first birth are two prominent features of China’s demographic transition during the past two decades. The increasing incidence of premarital sex and the rapid reduction in the first birth interval indicate a significant change in the sexual behavior of young Chinese couples. This change is an outcome of broad social transformations, including a move away from arranged marriages; increased formal education and nonfamilial employment; recent changes in sexual mores; and a strong government family planning program promoting birth control and later marriage. In contrast to other Asian societies that have also experienced a change in the pattern of sexual behavior among the young, in China such a change was the unintended consequence of actions of a forceful socialist state. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 299-320]
Notes and Commentary Population Change, Lifestyle, and Technology: How Much Difference Can They Make?
Faye Duchin, Director, Institute for Economic Analysis, New York University The note describes a line of inquiry into social, economic, and environmental interactions as a basis for avoiding undesirable outcomes and pursuing promising ones. First it reports empirical results suggesting that the recommendations of the Brundtland Report (which popularized “sustainable development” as a social objective), contrary to the document’s intentions and claims, would put increasing pressure on the environment over the next several decades. Based on this conclusion, the note argues that: (1) The choice of technology in production facilities and the lifestyle choices of different kinds of households are two areas in which changes can actually be made. (2) If we are able to provide new alternative strategies for changes in lifestyles and technologies, the analytic framework that is described can be used to examine the likely consequences. New concepts and methods are proposed for the systematic description of lifestyles and lifestyle alternatives. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 321-330]
Data and Perspectives East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?
Christoph Conrad, Scientific Assistant, Department of History, Free University of Berlin
Michael Lechner, Scientific Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Mannheim, and Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim
Welf Werner, Scientific Assistant, John F. Kennedy Institute, Free University of Berlin Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germans have drastically changed their demographic behavior. Marriages and births have dropped to an unprecedentedly low level. The authors track birth rates of the East German population, past, present, and future and propose a simulation model of future cohort fertility. Their hypotheses build on the historical record of reproductive behavior in the German Democratic Republic between 1960 and 1989 and on an analysis of the pattern of change between 1990 and 1994. They argue that East German couples will rapidly westernize their family size by trying to reach completed fertility levels of the corresponding West German cohort. This implies that the resulting adaptation process includes the postunification crisis as a logical first step. [22 no. 2 (Jun 96) 331-358]
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