How Many Americans Are Alive Because of Twentieth-Century Improvements in Mortality?
Kevin M. White, graduate student in demography and in the Medical School of the University of Pennsylvania
Samuel H. Preston, Director, Population Studies Center, and Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania The article estimates the number of living Americans who owe their existence to mortality declines that have occurred in the twentieth century. The estimate is made by projecting the US population from 1900 to 2000 using the mortality rates of 1900 rather than the rates actually observed. A distinction is made between people who would have been born and died and those who would never have been born because of a prereproductive death to an ancestor. Results indicate that the US population would be only one-half its current size if the mortality conditions of 1900 had been maintained: one-quarter of the population would have been born and died, and one-quarter would never have been born. The proportion alive because of mortality improvements shows little variation by sex and age, although it is greatest among the very young and the very old. Mortality reductions below age 15 contributed about two-thirds of the increase in the number of persons alive today. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 415-429]
A Model of Child Morbidity, Mortality, and Health Interventions
Stan Becker, Associate Professor, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health
Robert E. Black, Edgar Berman Professor and Chair, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health The authors present a macro model of morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age. Monthly disease-specific incidence and case fatality rates form the basis of the model, and the efficacy and coverage of disease-specific interventions alter these values. In addition, frailty is modeled via relative risks of mortality based on five groups, determined for newborns by the birthweight distribution and, at ages after the first month, by the proportion of children surviving a given illness who become more frail and the proportion not ill and with adequate nutrition who become less frail. A validation of the model was carried out using data from the Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh. The model very closely predicts the observed mortality level. Scenarios for improvements in coverage of specific interventions in settings in South Asia, West Africa, and South America are modeled and their effects on mortality gauged. The model provides a useful tool for those wishing to know the mortality impact of specified mixes of interventions in a given setting. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 431-456]
Women, Work, and Children: Behavioral and Attitudinal Change in the United States
Ronald R. Rindfuss, Professor of Sociology and Director, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Karin L. Brewster, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, and Research Associate, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University
Andrew L. Kavee, graduate student, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The United States at mid-century had a strong norm that mothers of young children should be full-time homemakers. Since then, there has been a strong trend toward higher levels of labor force participation of mothers of preschool-age children. Since the early 1970s, this trend in labor force participation has been accompanied by stable fertility rates. In this article, using attitudinal data, the authors show that there has been a substantial weakening of the norm that mothers of preschool children should stay home with their children. This change in measured attitudes is pervasive and appears to have been led by well-diffused behavioral change. The authors conclude by arguing that this change in attitudes has played an important role in the stabilizing of US fertility levels. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 457-482]
Population Pressure and the Food Supply System in the Developing World
John Bongaarts, Vice President, Research Division, the Population Council Trends in agricultural production in the developing world between 1962 and 1989 are analyzed to obtain estimates of the contributions to the past expansion of the food supply made by increases in land use, cropping frequency, crop yields, and imports. Countries with high and low population densities responded quite differently to rising demand for food. During the next half-century, rapid population growth and continued improvements in the quantity and quality of diets will result in a large (perhaps threefold) rise in the demand for food. While no persistent global shortages of food are foreseen, several problems—including degradation of environmental resources, food production in the densest and poorest countries, and undernutrition—require concerted attention. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 483-503]
Notes and Commentary Development Theory: An Analytical Framework and Selected Applications
Ester Boserup, author and consultant, an economist based in Brissago, Switzerland This note suggests a framework for a concise interpretation of contending theories of development and for description of a variety of development processes. The framework posits flows between six structures that have a certain stability, yet yield to change if they are exposed to strong or persistent pressure. The structures are: environment, population, technology level, occupational structure, family structure, and culture. Schematically, the six structures can be located as points on a circle, with arrows between any two structures to indicate the origin and direction of pressure any structure may exert on another. The framework may be used to describe the dynamic in micro- or macro-studies or to distinguish among major conceptional approaches in development theory. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 505-515]
The Upsurge of Mortality in Russia: Causes and Policy Implications
Lincoln C. Chen, Taro Takemi Professor of International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, and Director, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
Friederike Wittgenstein, doctoral candidate, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health
Elizabeth McKeon, graduate student, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, and formerly based in Moscow as Program Officer, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation This note summarizes conclusions reached at a recent international conference that considered the causes and policy implications of the upsurge of mortality in Russia following the collapse of the communist regime in 1989. The mortality crisis is genuine, not a case of “Glasnost in statistics.” There is little evidence to support the popular perception that the crisis is due to environmental deterioration or the collapse of medical services. These problems are real but they do not account for the rise in mortality. Rather, the crisis is the manifestation of economic, social, and political pathologies in Russian society. The responsible causes are probably a combination of historical and contemporary forces: catch-up effects from previous lifestyle risks and deferred deaths from the successful anti-alcohol campaign in the late 1980s; and current turmoil characterized by economic impoverishment, widening social inequality, and the breakdown of political institutions. Russia does not and did not conform to the standard model of “health transition” distilled from Western experience. Although there are some signs that the crisis may be abating, its future course remains uncertain. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 517-530]
Data and Perspectives Lightening the Tread of Population on the Land: American Examples
Paul E. Waggoner, Distinguished Scientist, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven
Jesse H. Ausubel, Director, Program for the Human Environment, Rockefeller University, New York
Iddo K. Wernick, Research Associate, Program for the Human Environment, Rockefeller University, New York People transform land by building, logging, and farming. The less land humans use, the more remains in its natural state. The authors search the past century for principles and trends influencing land use in the United States and contemplate the future when Americans might number an additional 100 million. Examples from American cities, counties, and states suggest that land covered by the built environment increases less than in proportion to population. For example, despite the rising use of paper relative to gross national product, the declining use of lumber combined with improved forestry kept the area of forest land fairly steady as population rose. Similarly, rising yields and changing tastes have countered the impact of rising population and wealth on cropland area. All told, a lightening tread of Americans on the land in the next century could spare for nature over 90 million hectares, an area equal to 100 times the size of Yellowstone National Park. [22, no. 3 (Sep 96) 531-545]
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