On Theory Development: Applications to the Study of Family Formation
Ron Lesthaeghe, professor of social science research methods and of demography, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels; member of the Belgian Royal Academy of Arts and Sciences. The further opening up of demography to related social science disciplines is a felicitous outcome, provided that this does not lead to a segregated set of mono-paradigmatic approaches or explanations. Hence, we need to go beyond the anchored narrative approach. In the philosophy of science, several paths for such further theory integration are available, and the present essay makes use of two such approaches: Imre Lakatos's program of "progressive problem shifts" and L. Jonathan Cohen's "inductive knowledge of comparative reliability." An application is made to three theories of the so-called second demographic transition, by showing that (1) these theories are by no means mutually exclusive, (2) their mechanisms are often interrelated and synergistic, and (3) the plausibility of a theory may depend on a chosen subgroup or context in time or space. Given these properties, such partial theories or separate narratives are prime candidates for inclusion into a more overarching multi-paradigmatic and multi-causal theory.[24, no.1 (Mar 98): 1–14]
Reproductive Mishaps and Western Contraception: An African Challenge to Fertility Theory
Caroline Bledsoe, Professor of Anthropology, Northwestern University.
Fatoumatta Banja, now attending the University of North Carolina, Charlotte, was Project Manager for the Gambia birth intervals project.
Allan G. Hill, Andelot Professor of Demography, Harvard School of Public Health. This article examines findings from rural Gambia that contradict Western views of the behavioral dynamics of high-fertility regimes. Findings on contraceptive use following miscarriages, stillbirths, and child deaths in rural Gambia contradict conventional child spacing explanations of contraceptive use in Africa. Examining these and other anomalies that challenge Western views of the dynamics of high-fertility regimes, this article demonstrates that rural Gambians do not perceive female reproductivity to be limited by chronological age or time. Instead, they view reproductive potential as a finite bodily capacity that can be exhausted well before menopause. Linking the processes of reproduction and senescence, the authors show that views of the cumulative reproductive tolls over the life course closely converge with the medical and biological entailments to high fertility. Looking through a fresh cultural lens at how Western population science has come to analyze fertility, the article shows that the Gambian view of the full range of "costs" of high fertility under difficult economic and medical conditions holds important lessons for fertility theory. [24, no.1 (Mar 98): 15–57]
How Low Can Fertility Be? An Empirical Exploration
Antonio Golini, Professor of Demography and Director, Department of Demographic Sciences, University "La Sapienza," Rome. The author seeks to evaluate a possible minimum of both cohort and period fertility in a present-day population of large size. He argues that a fertility floor other than zero may be posited for several reasons. Based on European experiences he considered a situation in which 20 to 30 percent of women in a cohort remain childless and the remaining 70 to 80 percent have only one child. According to this empirically based hypothesis, a total fertility rate between 0.7 and 0.8 can be taken as the lower bound for cohort fertility. If the mean age at birth increases over time, the period total fertility rate could become temporarily about 9 percent less than the constant total fertility of cohorts that contribute to it. [24, no.1 (Mar 98): 59–73]
The Poverty of Cities in Developing Regions (PDF)
Martin Brockerhoff, Associate, Policy Research Division, Population Council.
Ellen Brennan, Chief, Population Policy Section, United Nations Population Division. Since the 1970s, big cities of the developing world have experienced three unprecedented demographic changes: Most "mega-cities" (cities with 5 million residents or more) have absorbed huge population increments; other large cities have experienced, on average, a doubling of population size; and national populations have become increasingly concentrated in cities with one million or more residents. As a result of these and related changes, the long-standing presumption that living conditions are better for big-city residents has come into question. This study uses indicators of children's status and level of infant mortality to compare well-being across cities of one million or more residents and smaller settlements within developing regions. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the pronounced early survival advantage of big-city residents has declined steadily since the late 1970s and was no longer apparent by the early 1990s. In sub-Saharan Africa "mega-villages" of several hundred thousand people have emerged--places in which such basic human needs as adequate nutrition, schooling, and child health care are less fulfilled than they are even in small towns. In sum, findings suggest that sustainable development of large cities is dependent not only on efficient management, good governance, and sufficient resources, but is also related to cities' size and their rate of population growth. [24, no.1 (Mar 98): 75–114]
Notes and Commentary Population, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming: The Forgotten Relationship at Kyoto
Frederick A. B. Meyerson, Lecturer in Biology, Yale University, and Teaching Fellow, Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. This article examines the historical relationship between population growth and carbon emissions and the challenges facing the signatories of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on global warming. In assessing the targets agreed upon at Kyoto, the wide variation in projected population change among developed countries is a significant yet largely ignored factor. The Protocol's national emissions caps will require relatively rapidly growing countries, including the United States and Canada, to cut per capita emissions by 20 percent or more by 2010, while the European Union, Japan, and other signatories with slower or negative population growth face a much less daunting task. Even assuming the Protocol is successfully implemented, the global warming treaty cannot succeed without the near-term participation of developing countries, many of which already or will soon produce excessive carbon emissions as a combined result of large population size and fairly high per capita carbon use. Internationally, population stabilization policies will also be a key determinant of the success of any climate plan. [24, no.1 (Mar 98): 115–130]
Data and Perspectives The Feminization of Poverty: Claims, Facts, and Data Needs
Alain Marcoux, Senior Officer, Population Programme Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It is frequently asserted, without supporting evidence, that 70 percent of the world's poor are female. This study notes the implausibility of that percentage, which would imply some 500 million female poor in excess of male numbers, almost entirely among adults. It examines whether there are likely assumptions that could warrant the claim. The study shows that poor female-headed households account for an excess of less than 100 million females living in poverty, and that no other factor can account for the remainder of the supposed gap between wide male and female numbers in poverty. It presents data showing that the global proportion of females among members of poor households is on the order of 55 percent. Finally, it proposes directions for developing more policy-relevant knowledge on the feminization of poverty. [24, no.1 (Mar 98): 131–139]
Archives - Sir James Steuart on the Causes of Human Multiplication
Book Reviews - Piercing the Fogs of Time: Europe's Early Population History. A Review Essay on Jean-Pierre Bardet and Jacques Dupâquier (eds.), Histoire des populations de l'Europe, Vol. I, reviewed by Etienne van de Walle
- David I. Kertzer and Tom Fricke (eds.), Anthropological Demography: Toward a New Synthesis, reviewed by John C. Caldwell
- Alan Macfarlane, The Savage Wars of Peace: England, Japan and the Malthusian Trap, reviewed by James C. Riley
- David S. Reher, Perspectives on the Family in Spain, Past and Present, reviewed by David I. Kertzer
- James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston (eds.), The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration, reviewed by Enrico Anthony Marcelli
- Youssef Courbage and Philippe Fargues, Christians and Jews under Islam, reviewed by Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer
Short Reviews - Ann K. Blanc et al., Negotiating Reproductive Outcomes in Uganda
- Robert Dorfman and Peter P. Rogers (eds.), Science with a Human Face: In Honor of Roger Randall Revelle
- Sharon Hays, The Cultural Contradictions of Motherhood
- Homa Hoodfar, Between Marriage and the Market: Intimate Politics and Survival in Cairo
- Tamara Jacka, Women's Work in Rural China: Change and Continuity in an Era of Reform
- Gavin W. Jones and Terence H. Hull (eds.), Indonesia Assessment: Population and Human Resources
- Michael C. Latham, Human Nutrition in the Developing World
- Christopher McDowell (ed.), Understanding Impoverishment: The Consequences of Development-Induced Displacement
- Japheth Ng'weshemi, Ties Boerma, John Bennett, and Dick Schapink (eds.), HIV Prevention and AIDS Care in Africa: A District Level Approach
- James P.M. Ntozi, High Fertility in Rural Uganda: The Role of Socioeconomic and Biological Factors
- James C. Riley, Sick, Not Dead: The Health of British Workingmen during the Mortality Decline
- Paul J. Smith (ed.), Human Smuggling: Chinese Migrant Trafficking and the Challenge to America's Immigration Tradition
- Judith Stacey, In the Name of the Family: Rethinking Family Values in the Postmodern Age
Documents - United Nations World Population Projections to 2150
- The Council of Economic Advisers on Climate Change and the Kyoto Agreement
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