Abstracts
September 1999, Vol. 25, No. 3

Articles

• Population Weights in the International Order

Geoffrey McNicoll, Senior Associate, Policy Research Division, Population Council, and Professor, Demography Program, Australian National University, Canberra

Relative population sizes play little part in the international system. A state's economic and military power is influenced by population size, but as one factor among many. Formal relations among states exclude population from consideration by the principle of sovereign equality. Three sources of possible change in this situation are explored, in which states would be "population-weighted" to a greater degree than before. Convergence of productivity levels around the world, expected by many, would bring the economic and population rankings of states more into line. Some convergence is occurring, but selectively and for the most part quite slowly. Anticipation of its effect, however, influences the international order well in advance. A second source of change is the necessity to allocate among states the use of global commons, particularly the atmosphere as a sink for greenhouse gases. Acceptable remedies for this problem and perhaps for other global-level threats are likely to involve at least in part a per capita allocation principle. And third, population weights will tend to be more prominent in futures in which states are less important--as envisaged, for example, in the more benign scenarios of global society. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 411­442]

• Changing Food Production and Quality of Diet in India, 1947­98

Gordon R. Hopper, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, University of Toronto at Mississauga, Toronto, Ontario

Systematic and critical evaluation, using food balance sheets, census population data, government surveys, food composition statistics, and estimates of the population's biological requirements, shows that the realized improvements in food supplies in India of the past five decades, while beneficial, have been insufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the average person in a population that grew from less than 350 million to nearly one billion during this period. The improvements also fall significantly short of meeting the needs of the clinically malnourished. Present per capita dietary energy intakes range from as high as 95 percent to as low as 50 percent of daily requirements. Additionally, comparison of past and present diets shows that as the composition of the diet has changed with time, its nutritional quality for many has deteriorated despite an apparent increase in overall food quantity. This has come about from changes in the production system that have emphasized wheat and rice crops at the expense of more nutritional pulses and coarse grains, and from widespread poverty that leaves high-quality animal foods beyond the means of most. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 443­477]

• The Delayed Western Fertility Decline: An Examination of English-Speaking Countries

John C. Caldwell, Emeritus Professor of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra

Fertility decline began in English-speaking countries 80 years later than in France even though per capita incomes in the former were higher and children were probably a net economic burden, at least for the middle classes. Explanations have included ignorance of contraception and the desire to keep women out of the workforce. This essay suggests that the reasons are to be found in the works of the moral reformers rather than in those of the neo-Malthusians. The Victorian family was a construct made to meet the needs of industrializing countries. The marital relationship was believed to be in danger--and probably was in danger--from discussion of genital-related contraception. The low demand for contraception meant that contraceptives remained crude and could not be discussed in most marriages. The problem would ultimately be overcome through further economic development together with educational and other social change. Nevertheless, the legitimization of marital discussion of birth control was not achieved until the subject was written about in the press and subsequently in birth control manuals sold on a much larger scale than before. This, in turn, changed the packaging and accessibility of contraceptives, making their discussion, acquisition, and use easier and a fertility decline possible. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 479­513]

• Completing the Demographic Transition

John Bongaarts, Vice President, Policy Research Division, Population Council
Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Study Director, Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 515­529]

Notes and Commentary

• Evolutionary Theory and Historical Fertility Change

Chris Wilson, Fellow, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra

Probably no issue divides social scientists and natural scientists more demonstrably than their attitudes on the value of Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection. The present essay suggests the role that Darwinian theory can play in the study of human fertility. After examining the nature of Darwinian theory, the essay considers research carried out on fertility by biologists and anthropologists with methods based on it and possible reformulations of demographic methods and analyses that could benefit fertility research. It ends with suggestions for further research to explore the value of Darwinian approaches to demographic issues. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 531­541]

Data and Perspectives

• Measuring Women's Work in Developing Countries

Debra Anne Donahoe, affiliated with Data Square, LLC

While an extensive literature documents the need for better measures of women's work, few attempts have been made to construct suitable work typologies that could be applied throughout the developing world. The author argues that in addition to the descriptive utility of more-comprehensive measures of women's work, important analytical gains are to be made by applying better measures of work to a variety of research questions. Conventional labor force participation measures ignore an often substantial proportion of women's total productive activity, resulting in a limited understanding of the many processes that affect and are affected by women's work. The proposition is supported by examining an issue drawn from social demography--the relationship between women's work and decisionmaking relative to fertility in contemporary Egypt. [25, no. 3 (Sep 99) 543­576]

Archives

• Frank Fetter on Population Versus Prosperity

Book Reviews

• Johann Peter Süßmilch, L'Ordre divin dans les changements de l'espèce humaine, démontré par la naissance, la mort et la propagation de celle-ci, reviewed by William Petersen
   
• Garrett Hardin, The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia, reviewed by D. Gale Johnson
   
• Thomas Homer-Dixon and Jessica Blitt (eds.), Ecoviolence: Links Among Environment, Population, and Security and Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, reviewed by John I. Clarke
   
• Nancy Shoemaker, American Indian Population Recovery in the Twentieth Century, reviewed by Stephen J. Kunitz
   
• Yves Péron, Hélène Desrosiers, Heather Juby, Évelyne Lapierre-Adamcyk, Céline Le Bourdais, Nicole Marcil-Gratton, and Jaël Mongeau, Canadian Families at the Approach of the Year 2000, reviewed by Anatole Romaniuc

Short Reviews

• American Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Eleventh Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, New York, January 3­5 1999
   
• Katherine Betts, The Great Divide: Immigration Politics in Australia
   
• C. Y. Cyrus Chu, Population Dynamics: A New Economic Approach
   
• Timothy J. Hatton and Jeffrey G. Williamson, The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact
   
• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, World Disasters Report 1998
   
• Augustine J. Kposowa, The Impact of Immigration on the United States Economy
   
• B. Lindsay Lowell (ed.), Foreign Temporary Workers in America: Policies That Benefit the U.S. Economy
   
• Christopher J. L. Murray and Alan D. Lopez (eds.), Health Dimensions of Sex and Reproduction: The Global Burden of Sexually Transmitted Diseases, HIV, Maternal Conditions, Perinatal Disorders, and Congenital Abnormalities
   
• Jack Parsons, Human Population Competition: A Study of the Pursuit of Power Through Numbers
   
• Julian L. Simon, Economics Against the Grain
   
• World Bank, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1998

Documents

• The United Nations on the Implementation of the Cairo Program of Action
   
• CDC on Infectious Diseases in the United States: 1900-99