- Labor Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000-2050
Peter McDonald, Professor and Head, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University
Rebecca Kippen, Research Scholar, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University Over the past 20 years, policy attention has been focused upon the implications of below-replacement fertility for the aging of populations. This article argues that another potential consequence, a decline in the absolute size of the labor force, may prove to be an equally compelling issue because of its impact on rates of economic growth. Because the United States will experience both increasing labor productivity and an increase in its labor supply, the growth orientation of the global economy is likely to persist. In this circumstance, given relatively comparable changes in the productivity of labor across countries, countries that face major declines in their labor supply will fare less well than countries that are able to maintain their labor supply at least constant. The article examines the labor supply prospects of 16 developed countries for the period 2000-2050, drawing attention to the ways in which countries may be able to influence the future levels of their labor supply. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 1-32]
- Fertility, Education, and Development: Evidence from India
Jean Drèze, Honorary Professor, Delhi School of Economics
Mamta Murthi, Research Fellow, Centre for History and Economics, King's College, Cambridge Fertility has declined significantly in many parts of India since the early 1980s. This article examines the determinants of fertility levels and fertility decline, using data on Indian districts for 1981 and 1991. The authors find that women's education and child mortality are the most important factors explaining fertility differences across the country and over time. Low levels of son preference also contribute to lower fertility. By contrast, general indicators of modernization and development such as urbanization, poverty reduction, and male literacy exhibit no significant association with fertility. En passant, the authors probe a subject of much confusion--the relation between fertility decline and gender bias. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 33-63]
- Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan
Robert D. Retherford, Coordinator, Population and Health Studies, East-West Center, Honolulu
Naohiro Ogawa, Deputy Director, Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo
Rikiya Matsukura, Staff Researcher, Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo Between 1975 and 1995, the singulate mean age at marriage in Japan increased from 24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion of women who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent for men--behaviors sharply different from those characterizing the universal-marriage society of earlier years. This article investigates how and why these changes have come about. The reasons are bound up with rapid educational gains by women, massive increases in the proportion of women who work for pay outside the home, major changes in the structure and functioning of the marriage market, extraordinary increases in the prevalence of premarital sex, and far-reaching changes in values relating to marriage and family life. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 65-102]
- Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries
Tomas Frejka, International Consultant and Visiting Scholar, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Gérard Calot, Directeur de l'Observatoire Démographique Européen, Saint-Germain-en-Laye , France This account reports on a project in progress that aims to obtain a comprehensive picture of contemporary fertility levels and trends in 27 low-fertility countries. Cohort analysis is applied to review the fertility experience of women born from the 1930s through the 1970s. This choice of dates ensures that not only completed fertility but also the fertility patterns of women in the midst of or near the onset of their reproductive period are examined. In most of the 27 countries, completed fertility of successive cohorts has been declining. It appears plausible that the trends discerned in the analysis will continue in the foreseeable future. For these trends to be reversed, women who are about to enter or who are in the midst of their reproductive periods would have to adopt fertility patterns markedly different from those of women born in the 1960s and 1970s. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 103-132]
Notes and Commentary - Is There Evidence of Birth Control in Late Imperial China?
Arthur P. Wolf, Professor of Anthropology, Department of Anthropological Sciences, Stanford University In recent publications James Lee, Wang Feng, Cameron Campbell, and Zhongwei Zhao argue--contrary to what has long been the view of most sinologists--that people in late imperial China deliberately controlled their fertility through a combination of late starting, early stopping, and long spacing. The present article challenges this argument and the data offered in its support. It attempts to show that though they did not want as many children as possible, most Chinese couples did want to raise as many sons as possible. What is interpreted by the revisionists as evidence of birth control is better understood as evidence of poverty. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 133-154]
Data and Perspectives - On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000
Chris Wilson, Fellow, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude, with pronounced falls in both mortality and fertility in many developing countries. This article assesses the extent to which these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. It considers not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. It also disaggregates China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The note presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experienced in the early 1950s, the late 1970s, and around 2000. The graphs and tables thus produced give a convenient and novel way to view the scale and nature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years. [27, no. 1 (Mar 01): 155-171]
Archives - Robert Wallace on Population and Utopian Government
Book Reviews - Robert E. Lane, The Loss of Happiness in Market Democracies, reviewed by Peter Laslett
- Jack Goody, The European Family: An Historico-Anthropological Essay, reviewed by Edward Shorter
- Nicholas Eberstadt, Prosperous Paupers and Other Population Problems, reviewed by William McGreevey
- Caroline Bledsoe, Susana Lerner, and Jane I. Guyer (eds.), Fertility and the Male Life-Cycle in the Era of Fertility Decline, reviewed by Simon Szreter
- Gina Kolata, Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It, reviewed by Andrew Noymer
- David R. Phillips (ed.), Ageing in the Asia-Pacific Region: Issues, Policies and Future Trends, reviewed by Zachary Zimmer
Short Reviews - Martin Carnoy, Sustaining the New Economy: Work, Family, and Community in the Information Age
- Joop Garssen, Joop de Beer, Lieneke Hoeksma, Kees Prins, and Rolf Verhoef (eds.), Vital Events: Past, Present and Future of the Dutch Population
- International Fund for Agricultural Development, Rural Poverty Report 2001: The Challenge of Ending Rural Poverty
- Andrew Mason and Georges Tapinos (eds.), Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations
- Phil Mullan, The Imaginary Time Bomb: Why An Ageing Problem Is Not a Social Problem
- National Research Council, Board on Sustainable Development, Our Common Journey: A Transition toward Sustainability
- National Research Council, Forum on Biodiversity Committee, Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World
- Ronald E. Seavoy, Subsistence and Economic Development
- United Nations Children's Fund, A League Table of Child Deaths by Injury in Rich Nations
Documents - Global Warming: New Scenarios from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
- Reinstatement of the US "Mexico City Policy"
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