John C. Caldwell, Emeritus Professor of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra
Thomas Schindlmayr, Research Assistant, Health Transition Centre, Australian National University, Canberra The mid-twentieth century witnessed the emergence of a remarkable consensus on quantitative estimates of world population growth after 1650. This was the achievement of Walter Willcox, supported and modified by Alexander Carr-Saunders and John Durand, and was endorsed by United Nations publications. It had its origins in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century work, largely carried out in Germany. Willcox was particularly interested in demonstrating seventeenth-century population growth as evidence of the global impact of European expansion, and this probably led to a too-ready acceptance of estimates with little real basis. More recent estimates do little to shake the consensus, but extend the historical series back over two millennia or further. The article examines the strength and influence of a consensus based in the earlier period on surprisingly insecure data. It then turns to the most suspect element in the consensus, the pre-twentieth-century estimates for Africa. Finally, little hope is expressed that future researchers will be able to establish reliable estimates, especially for dates earlier than the eighteenth century. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 183-204]
Joshua A. Salomon, Health Policy Analyst, Global Programme on Evidence for Health Policy, World Health Organization
Christopher J. L. Murray, Executive Director, Evidence and Information for Policy, World Health Organization For decades, researchers have noted systematic shifts in cause-of-death patterns as mortality levels change. The notion of the "epidemiologic transition" has influenced thinking about the evolution of health in different societies and the response of the health system to these changes. This article re-examines the epidemiologic transition in terms of empirical regularities in the cause composition of mortality by age and sex since 1950, and considers whether the theory of epidemiologic transition presents a durable framework for understanding more recent patterns. Age-sex-specific mortality rates from three broad cause groups are analyzed: Group 1 (communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal causes, and nutritional deficiencies); Group 2 (noncommunicable diseases); and Group 3 (injuries), using the most extensive international database on mortality by cause, including 1,576 country-years of observation, and new statistical models for compositional data. The analyses relate changes in cause-of-death patterns to changing levels of all-cause mortality and income per capita. The results confirm that declines in overall mortality are accompanied by systematic changes in the composition of causes in many age groups. These changes are most pronounced among children, for whom Group 1 causes decline as overall mortality falls, and in younger adults, where strikingly different patterns are found for men (shift from Group 3 to Group 2) compared to women (shift toward Group 2 then Group 3). The underlying patterns that emerge from this analysis offer insights into the epidemiologic transition from high-mortality to low-mortality settings. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 205-228]
Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, Assistant Professor, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley Many studies of fertility implicitly equate temporal management, biomedical contraception, and "modernity" on the one hand, and "tradition," the lack of intentional timing, and uncontrolled fertility on the other. This article questions that equation, focusing on the widespread use of periodic abstinence in southern Cameroon. Drawing on field data and the Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey, the article investigates how local concepts of timing shape both contraceptive choice and the evaluation of methods as "modern" or "traditional." Cameroonian women prefer periodic abstinence because they perceive it as "modern," a modernity tied both to the social context in which it is taught and to its unique temporal form. By contrast, Depo-Provera, pills, and the IUD are seen as less-than-modern, because they are less exigent of temporal control. The reliance on a behavioral, rather than technological, contraceptive method parallels the experience of the European fertility transition. Cameroonian women draw on a complex social repertoire in making contraceptive choices; methods are preferred or rejected not only on the basis of their efficacy in averting pregnancy, but also because of their correspondence to models of legitimate social action. Reproductive practices may have social motivations that are unrelated to fertility per se. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 229-249]
Zeng Yi, Senior Research Scientist, Center for Demographic Studies and Department of Sociology, Duke University; Professor, Institute of Population Research, Peking University; and Distinguished Research Scholar, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
James W. Vaupel, Senior Research Scientist, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, and Director, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Xiao Zhenyu, Senior Research Scientist, China National Research Center on Aging, Beijing
Zhang Chunyuan, Professor, Institute of Population Research, Peking University
Liu Yuzhi, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Institute of Population Research, Peking University Unique data from a 1998 healthy longevity baseline survey provide demographic, socioeconomic, and health characteristics of the oldest old, aged 80-105, in China. This subpopulation is growing rapidly and is likely to need extensive social and health services. A large majority of Chinese oldest old live with their children and rely mainly on children for financial support and care. Most Chinese oldest old had no or very little education. Ability to function independently in daily living declines rapidly and self-rated health declines moderately across the oldest old ages. As compared to their urban counterparts, the rural oldest old have far less pension support, are significantly less educated, and are more likely to be widowed and to rely on children for support. Apart from higher rates of survival, the female oldest old in China are far more disadvantaged than the male oldest old. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 251-273]
Alain Marcoux, former Senior Officer, Population and Development Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations This note seeks indirect evidence regarding possible sex biases in food intake for adults and children, through large-scale survey findings for anthropometric indicators. Among adults, excess female undernutrition is a serious problem in view of the large populations concerned (rural China, India), but data are still needed to assess the situation in many countries. Regarding preschool children, the anti-female biases once noted for China, India, and other countries seem to have disappeared. Where differences exist, boys fare worse than girls (probably because girls, given a less than adequate food supply, tend to cope with it better than boys). Anti-female discriminatory practices either are limited in magnitude or apply in groups that are too few or too small to be detectable in large populations. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 275-284]
Stephan Klasen, Professor of Economics, University of Munich
Claudia Wink, Junior Investment Officer, Deutsche Entwicklungsgesellschaft (German Development Corporation), Cologne Amartya Sen started a debate about gender bias in mortality by estimating the number of "missing women," which refers to the number of females of any age who have presumably died as a result of discriminatory treatment. Depending on the assumptions made, the combined estimates for countries exhibiting the presence of such gender bias varied between 60 and 107 million. As new population data have become available for these countries, this article examines whether the number of "missing women" has changed in the past decade. The combined estimate of the number of missing women has risen in absolute terms but has fallen slightly in relation to overall population. Considerable improvement is evident in West Asia, North Africa, and parts of South Asia, while only small improvements have occurred in India and a deterioration took place in China. Analyses of the underlying causes of gender bias in mortality suggest that improvements are largely related to improved female education and employment opportunities and rising overall incomes, while deterioration is mostly attributable to the rising incidence of sex-selective abortions. [28, no. 2 (Jun 02): 285-312]
- David Riesman on Phases of Population Growth and Social Character
- Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley, and Steven W. Sinding (eds.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Does Population Matter? A Review Essay by Dennis A. Ahlburg
- Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, reviewed by Gavin W. Jones
- Emma Rothschild, Economic Sentiments: Adam Smith, Condorcet, and the Enlightenment, reviewed by William Petersen
- Klaus M. Leisinger, Karin Schmitt, and Rajul Pandya-Lorch, Six Billion and Counting: Population Growth and Food Security in the 21st Century, reviewed by Paul Waggoner
- Barry Bogin, The Growth of Humanity, reviewed by John Komlos
- Nigel Harris, Thinking the Unthinkable: The Immigration Myth Exposed, reviewed by Douglas S. Massey
- Andrew Geddes, Immigration and European Integration: Towards Fortress Europe?
- Urs Luterbacher and Detlef F. Sprinz (eds.), International Relations and Global Climate Change
- Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer (ed.), Cultural Perspectives on Reproductive Health
- Jack Parsons, Population Competition for Security or Attack: A Study of the Perilous Pursuit of Power through Weight of Numbers
- Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Rajul Pandya-Lorch (eds.), The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and Environmental Degradation
- Anisur Rahman, Indian Labour Migration to the Gulf
- Minna Säävälä, Fertility and Familial Power Relations: Procreation in South India
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Report on the World Social Situation 2001
- The Global Science Panel on Population in Sustainable Development
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