- Eating Meat: Evolution, Patterns, and Consequences
Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor, Faculty of the Environment, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Carnivorousness is a part of human evolutionary heritage, but typical meat intakes were limited in virtually all preindustrial societies. Rising meat consumption has been a key marker of the universal dietary transition that has accompanied economic modernization. Meat is now the largest source of high-quality animal proteins, and in some countries its annual supply is as high as 100 kg or more per capita. At the same time, high average intakes of red meat and poultry have had a number of undesirable agronomic, economic, nutritional, and environmental consequences. Fortunately, most of these negative effects can be alleviated by reducing excessively high meat consumption and by managing better both the production of feeds and the feeding of animals [28, no. 4 (Dec 02): 599–639]
- The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s
Hans-Peter Kohler, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
Francesco C. Billari, Associate Professor of Demography, Institute of Quantitative Methods, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
José Antonio Ortega, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Analysis, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain Lowest-low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate at or below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s. This article traces the emergence of this new phenomenon to the interaction of five factors. First, tempo and compositional distortions reduce the total fertility rate below the associated level of cohort fertility. Second, socioeconomic changes—including increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples. Third, social interaction effects reinforce this behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth. Fourth, institutional settings favor an overall low quantum of fertility. Fifth, postponement–quantum interactions amplify the consequences of this institutional setting when combined with ongoing delays of childbearing. The article concludes with speculations about future trends in current and prospective lowest-low-fertility countries. [28, no. 4 (Dec 02): 641–680]
- The Ethnic Composition of Families in Russia in 1989: Insights into the Soviet “Nationalities Policy”
Nikolai Botev, Population Affairs Expert, Population Activities Unit, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland A sample from the 1989 Soviet census is used to study the ethnic composition of families in the Russian Federation on the eve of the breakup of the Soviet Union. The aim is to gain insight into the consequences of the Soviet “nationalities policy” through examining the marriage patterns of different ethnic groups and the nature of the relations between these groups. The analysis is based on general log-linear models. The main findings are: there was a relatively well-pronounced tendency toward endogamy; Russians were the least endogamous, while Chechens were the most endogamous among the 11 ethnic groups included in the analysis; “zones of attraction” related to exogamy were well discernible, the two most pronounced being within the Eastern Slav and Turkic groups; testing for cohort effects revealed a decrease in endogamy when older and middle cohorts were compared, while the differences between middle and younger cohorts were in many cases not statistically significant. [28, no. 4 (Dec 02): 681–706]
- Reactions of Developing-Country Elites to International Population Policy
Nancy Luke, Research Fellow, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Susan Cotts Watkins, Professor of Sociology, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia The authors examine the global diffusion of international population policy, which they consider a cultural item. The process of cultural diffusion is often seen as spontaneous: items of Western culture are in demand because they are universally attractive. Yet cultural flows may also be directed, they may be unattractive to their intended recipients, and their acceptance may depend on persuasion and material incentives. The authors consider the range of responses of national elites to the new population policy adopted by the United Nations at Cairo in 1994. Strongly influenced by feminists, the Cairo Program of Action promotes gender equity and reproductive health and demotes previous concerns with population growth. The data are interviews with representatives of governmental and nongovernmental organizations involved in population and health in five developing countries. To interpret the interviews, the authors draw on two theoretical frameworks. The first emphasizes the attractiveness of new cultural items and the creation of a normative consensus about their value. The second emphasizes differentials in power and resources among global actors and argues that the diffusion of cultural items can be directed by powerful donor states. Interviews in Bangladesh, Ghana, Jordan, Malawi, and Senegal portray a mixed reception to Cairo: enthusiastic embrace of certain aspects of the Cairo policy by some members of the national elite and a realistic assessment of donor power by virtually all. Strategies of rhetoric and action appear to be aimed at maintaining and directing the flows of donor funds. [28, no. 4 (Dec 02): 707–733]
Notes and Commentary - Pretransitional Fertility in China
Cameron D. Campbell, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, University of California at Los Angeles
Wang Feng, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, University of California at Irvine
James Z. Lee, Professor, Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, and Visiting Professor of History, University of Michigan and Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research
- Fertility Control in China’s Past
Zhongwei Zhao, Senior Research Associate, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, University of Cambridge
Data and Perspectives - Sex-Selective Abortions in India
Fred Arnold, Vice President, ORC Macro, Calverton, Maryland
Sunita Kishor, Senior Gender Specialist, ORC Macro, Calverton, Maryland
T. K. Roy, Director, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India Provisional estimates from the 2001 census of India, which showed unusually high sex ratios for young children, have sparked renewed concern about the growing use of sex-selective abortions to satisfy parental preferences for sons. According to the 1998–99 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2), in recent years the sex ratio at birth in India has been abnormally high (107–121 males per 100 females) in 16 of India’s 26 states. Data from NFHS-2 on abortions, sex ratios at birth, son preference, and the use of ultrasound and amniocentesis during pregnancy present compelling evidence of the extensive use of sex-selective abortions, particularly in Gujarat, Haryana, and Punjab. The authors estimate that in the late 1990s more than 100,000 sex-selective abortions of female fetuses were being performed annually in India. Recent efforts to expand and enforce government regulations against this practice may have some effect, but they are not likely to be completely successful without changes in the societal conditions that foster son preference. [28, no. 4 (Dec 02): 759–785]
Archives - Oswald Spengler on Cosmopolis and Depopulation
Book Reviews - Patrick J. Buchanan, The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization, reviewed by Geoffrey McNicoll
- Catherine Hakim, Work-Lifestyle Choices in the 21st Century: Preference Theory, reviewed by Linda Waite
- Diane J. Macunovich, Birth Quake: The Baby Boom and Its Aftershocks, reviewed by John Ermisch
- James C. Riley, Rising Life Expectancy: A Global History, reviewed by S. Jay Olshansky
- Sylvia T. Wargon, Demography in Canada in the Twentieth Century, reviewed by Jacques Légaré
Short Reviews - Kamran Asdar Ali, Planning the Family in Egypt: New Bodies, New Selves
- David I. Kertzer and Dominique Arel (eds.), Census and Identity: The Politics of Race, Ethnicity, and Language in National Censuses
- Peter Lloyd-Sherlock (ed.), Healthcare Reform and Poverty in Latin America
- Barbara Marshall, Europe in Change: The New Germany and Migration in Europe
- Ishwar Modi (ed.), Ageing and Human Development: Global Perspectives
- United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Arab States, Arab Human Development Report 2002: Creating Opportunities for Future Generations
- United Nations Population Division, World Population Ageing 1950–2050
- Jacques Vallin, France Meslé, and Tapani Valkonen (eds.), Trends in Mortality and Differential Mortality
- Myron Weiner and Michael S. Teitelbaum, Political Demography, Demographic Engineering
- Zhang Weiguo, Economic Reforms and Fertility Behavior: A Study of a North Chinese Village
Documents - The Johannesburg Summit on Health and Sustainable Development
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