• Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century (PDF)

Paul Demeny, Distinguished Scholar, Population Council

The article discusses issues raised by persistent below-replacement fertility in Europe. The continent's demographic predicament is highlighted by comparing age structures and relative population sizes between populations in and outside Europe—such as those of Russia and Yemen and those of an enlarged 25-country European Union and a 25-country hinterland to the EU in North Africa and West Asia—during the past 50 years and prospectively up to 2050, based on United Nations estimates and projections. Potential geopolitical aspects of the population shifts are considered. European policy responses to them are found largely wanting. With respect to the key demographic variable, fertility, explicit pronatalism is rejected by most European governments. A set of policy measures that commands wide support, with the hoped-for side effect of raising birth rates, seeks to make women's participation in the formal labor force compatible with childrearing. The effectiveness of such measures, however, is likely to be limited. Continued below-replacement fertility, higher immigration from outside Europe, negative population growth, and loss of demographic weight within the global population are safe predictions for the Europe of the twenty-first century.[29, no. 1 (Mar 03): 1–28]

• Urban­Rural Mortality Differentials: An Unresolved Debate

Robert Woods, John Rankin Professor of Geography, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom

Historians and demographers have long debated the existence, causes, and consequences of historical differences between urban and rural mortality levels. In Europe it has been usual to observe excess mortality in cities compared to the countryside, but in East Asia, by contrast, it has been found that urban areas had relatively favorable mortality environments. The debate continues because a number of pertinent questions remain to be resolved. For example, the way in which mortality is measured may influence the apparent extent of the differential, as may the way in which "urban" and "rural" are defined. Cultural factors need to be taken into account, including the practices of childrearing and the conventions surrounding baptism. Examples drawn from Japan, China, England, and France illustrate the issues involved in comparative analysis, while the urban­rural mortality continuum is examined for nineteenth-century England and Wales using log-normal distributions.[29, no. 1 (Mar 03): 29–46]

• Shifting Childrearing to Single Mothers: Results from 17 Western Countries

Patrick Heuveline, Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate, Population Research Center, University of Chicago
Jeffrey M. Timberlake, doctoral candidate, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago
Frank F. Furstenberg, Jr., Zellerbach Family Professor of Sociology and Research Associate, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania

We investigate how recent changes in the Western family have affected childhood living arrangements. For 17 developed countries, we use multistate life table techniques to estimate childhood trajectories of coresidence with biological fathers versus other maternal partners. In all countries childhood exposure to single parenting is more often caused by parental separation than out-of-partnership childbearing. Both exposure to single parenting and expectancy of childhood spent with a single non-cohabiting mother vary widely across countries, with the United States exhibiting the highest levels of each at early 1990s rates. The greatest international variations concern parental cohabitation—its prevalence, durability, and the degree to which its increase has compensated for a decrease in the expectancy of childhood spent with married parents. Overall, we find little evidence of international convergence in childrearing arrangements, except that in countries where parental marriage has declined over time, childrearing has predominantly shifted to single mothers.[29, no. 1 (Mar 03): 47–71]

• Measurement of Household and Family Composition in the United States, 1850–2000

Steven Ruggles, Distinguished McKnight University Professor of History, and Director, Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota
Susan Brower, fellowship trainee in sociology and population studies, University of Michigan

This article has three goals. First, it explores the effects of changes in census definitions and concepts on the measurement of living arrangements. As part of this analysis, the authors develop new estimates of the number of households and group quarters in each census year since 1850. Second, they evaluate the existing aggregate statistical series on family and household composition, with particular attention to problems in the measurement of subfamilies. Finally, they describe data and methods for developing a consistent set of statistics for the period since 1850 and offer recommendations for the coherent measurement of family and household composition.[29, no. 1 (Mar 03): 73–101]

Notes and Commentary

• Cultural Diversity and Population Policy in Nigeria

Oka Obono, Lecturer, Department of Sociology, University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Nigeria's ambitious population policy, adopted in 1988, had its origins in the international population and development thinking of the time, set out in documents such as the World Population Plan of Action and the Kilimanjaro Programme of Action. The policy has had at most a modest effect in curbing the country's high fertility. This failure, it is argued, stems from the policy's implicit assumption of a single, monolithic cultural reality and its disregard of male reproductive motivation. Belief systems in Nigeria are extraordinarily diverse in detail but share a common interest in the fertility of crops, livestock, and people. Patterns of social organization are similarly varied. For an effective population policy, the government needs to find ways of incorporating distinct elements of the cultures of the different ethnic groups, leveraging rather than suppressing the country's cultural diversity.[29, no. 1 (Mar 03): 103–111]

Archives

• Ansley J. Coale on Increases in Expectation of Life and Population Growth

Book Reviews

• Philipp Ther and Ana Siljak (eds.), Redrawing Nations: Ethnic Cleansing in East-Central Europe, 1944­1948, reviewed by Rainer Mackensen
   
• Rainer Mackensen (ed.), Bevölkerungslehre und Bevölkerungspolitik vor 1933, reviewed by Etienne van de Walle
   
• Caroline H. Bledsoe, Contingent Lives: Fertility, Time, and Aging in West Africa, reviewed by John B. Casterline
   
• Alan Booth and Ann C. Crouter (eds.), Just Living Together: Implications of Cohabitation on Families, Children, and Social Policy, reviewed by Elizabeth Fussell
   
• Nancy A. Denton and Stewart E. Tolnay (eds.), American Diversity: A Demographic Challenge for the 21st Century, reviewed by Lee Bouvier

Short Reviews

• Helen Macbeth and Paul Collinson (eds.), Human Population Dynamics: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives
   
• Jane Menken, Ann K. Blanc, and Cynthia B. Lloyd (eds.), Training and Support of Developing-Country Population Scientists: A Panel Report
   
• Erin Phelps, Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Anne Colby (eds.), Looking at Lives: American Longitudinal Studies of the Twentieth Century
   
• Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, and John O. Niles (eds.), Climate Change Policy: A Survey
   
• United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Statistical Yearbook 2001: Refugees, Asylum-seekers and Other Persons of Concern—Trends in Displacement, Protection and Solutions
   
• World Bank, World Development Report 2003. Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World: Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life
   
• World Health Organization, World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life

Documents

• Demographic Prospects 2000–2050 According to the 2002 Revision of the United Nations Population Projections