- The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities
Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Modern civilization is subject to gradual environmental, social, economic, and political transformations as well as to sudden changes that can fundamentally alter its prospects. This article examines a key set of such fatal discontinuities by quantifying the likelihood of three classes of sudden, and potentially catastrophic, events—natural disasters (the Earth's collision with nearby asteroids, massive volcanic eruptions and mega-tsunami generated by these events, as well as by huge landslides); viral pandemics; and transformational wars—and by comparing their likelihood with other involuntary risks (including terrorism) and voluntary actions and exposures. [31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 201–236]
Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food, Agriculture, and Development Nikos Alexandratos, Consultant and former Chief, Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome Recent long-term demographic projections suggest a fast deceleration of global population growth and the eventual peaking of world population later in this century at about 9.2 billion, roughly 50 percent above the present level. Some low-income and food-insecure countries, however, have projected populations in 2050 that are multiples of present ones. In some of these countries agriculture must play a leading role in their development efforts because they have high economic dependence on that sector. For those among them that have scarce agricultural resources, a prima facie case can be made that the high population growth rates projected may not be compatible with the development potential offered by such resources. Their demographic projections may need to be revisited, taking into account such inadequate potential. The global demographic slowdown notwithstanding, the "population explosion"related issues pertaining to food and agriculture will not become irrelevant but will be become increasingly localized. [31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 237–258]
Mortality Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in the United States Richard G. Rogers, Director, Population Program, and Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado
Robert A. Hummer, Director, Population Research Center, and Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Texas-Austin
Patrick M. Krueger, Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholar, University of Pennsylvania
Fred C. Pampel, Faculty Research Associate, Population Program, and Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Cigarette smoking is an especially pernicious behavior because of its high prevalence and mortality risk. We use the powerful methodology of life tables with covariates and employ the National Health Interview Survey-Multiple Cause of Death file to illuminate the interrelationships of smoking with other risk factors and the combined influences of smoking prevalence and population size on mortality attributable to smoking. We find that the relationship between smoking and mortality is only modestly affected by controlling for other risk factors. Excess deaths attributable to smoking among adults in the United States in the year 2000 were as high as 340,000. Better knowledge of the prevalence and mortality risk associated with different cigarette smoking statuses can enhance the future health and longevity prospects of the population.
[31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 259–292]
Priorities in Global Assistance for Health, AIDS, and Population Landis MacKellar, Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
At the time this article was written he was a scholar at the Vienna Institute of Demography and a visitor at the City Health Economics Centre, City University, London. This article makes three points regarding international assistance in health, AIDS, and population. First, despite growing attention in the development policy dialogue, the share of health (broadly considered) in total assistance is actually declining, not increasing, if assistance for the HIV/AIDS crisis is taken out of the picture. Second, interventions financed by international health assistance do not closely correspond to the burden of disease as conventionally calculated. HIV/AIDS receives a share of assistance in excess of its contribution to the global burden of disease, and reasons for this are adduced. Third, despite the emphasis on aligning international assistance to country priorities, a comparison of how health is treated in poverty-reduction strategies and the nature of health assistance reveals no clear relationship between the two. This suggests that there may be room for improvement in the process of preparing such strategies, the allocation of health assistance, or both. [31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 293–312]
Notes and Commentary - The One-Child Policy in Shanghai: Acceptance and Internalization
Yilin Nie, student in the Economics Department, Yale University
Robert J. Wyman, Professor of Biology, Yale University China's one-child policy is a major example of social engineering and the subject of human rights concerns. Given the significance of the policy, it is important to ascertain the attitudes of Chinese citizens. We conducted interviews in 2003 with residents of Shanghai who were of childbearing age either at the policy's inception or at the time of the interview. Our respondents, who were generally well educated, did not perceive the policy as extraordinary when it was introduced; resignation to one more intrusive government regulation was mixed with understanding and even approval of the policy. People talked about the political and social context, demographic concerns, family economic strategy, and the results of government-engineered gender equality. Among the young interviewees, the context has changed from a population striving to get by under tight government control to a much richer population that is upwardly mobile and perceives their local government to be basically beneficial. The one-child family is considered normal; few are still concerned with the policy per se, while others see it as unnecessary. The one-child policy seems to reflect Shanghainese current preferences; its status as a legal requirement may be largely irrelevant. [31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 313–336]
- Tibetan Fertility Transitions in China and South Asia
Geoff Childs, Assistant Professor of Anthropology and Environmental Studies, Washington University, St. Louis
Melvyn C. Goldstein, John Reynolds Harkness Professor of Anthropology and Co-Director, Center for Research on Tibet, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland
Ben Jiao, Professor, Contemporary Tibet Research Institute, Tibet Academy of Social Sciences, Lhasa, Xizang, China
Cynthia M. Beall, Sarah Idell Pyle Professor of Anthropology and Co-Director, Center for Research on Tibet, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland The own-children method, an indirect technique, is used to estimate fertility rates for two populations of Tibetans during the 1980s and 1990s: a sample of rural villages in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and exiles living in India and Nepal. The analysis provides evidence that these two populations underwent remarkably similar fertility transitions in both timing and magnitude. In both cases total fertility rates declined from over six births per woman to below the level of replacement in a span of 15 years. The parallel nature of these fertility transitions is intriguing given that, although the populations share a common ethnic identity, they have lived under sharply differing political, economic, and social conditions since the 1960s. [31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 337–349]
Data and Perspectives - Selective Mortality During the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia
Damien de Walque, Economist, Development Research Group, The World Bank Aspects of the long-term demographic impact of genocide during the period of the Khmer Rouge (197579) in Cambodia are analyzed. Mortality data for siblings from the Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey in 2000 demonstrate that excess mortality was extremely high and heavily concentrated during 197480. The study also shows that mortality was highly selective during that period. Adult males were the most likely to die, indicating that violent death played a major role. Individuals with an urban or educated background were more likely to die. Mortality by religious background is also assessed. Infant and early childhood mortality was very high during the period and was as prevalent in urban areas and among children born to educated mothers as in rural areas and among the less educated.
[31, no. 2 (Jun 05): 351–368]
Archives - Horace Greeley on Immigrant Quality
Book Reviews - Robert Neuwirth, Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, a New Urban World , reviewed by Mark R. Montgomery
- John Landers, The Field and the Forge: Population, Production, and Power in the Preindustrial West, reviewed by Jack A. Goldstone
- Jochen Fleischhacker, Henk A. de Gans, and Thomas K.
Burch (eds.), Populations, Projections, and Politics: Critical and Historical Essays on Early Twentieth Century Population Forecasting, reviewed by Tomas Frejka
- Jean-Claude Chasteland, Michel Loriaux, and Louis
Roussel (eds.), Démographie 2000: Une enquête internationale par
Internet auprès des démographes, reviewed by Patrick Heuveline
Short Reviews - Commission for Africa, Our Common Interest: Report of the Commission for Africa
- Mérove Gijsberts, Louk Hagendoorn, and Peer Scheepers (eds.), Nationalism and Exclusion of Migrants: Cross-National Comparisons
- Raeann R. Hamon and Bron B. Ingoldsby (eds.), Mate Selection Across Cultures
- Matthew Kohrman, Bodies of Difference: Experiences of Disability and Institutional Advocacy in the Making of Modern China
- Marc R. Rosenblum, The Transnational Politics of U.S. Immigration Policy
- Eric Abella Roth, Culture, Biology, and Anthropological Demography
Documents - Environmental Degradation and Human Well-Being: Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
- The President of Pakistan on the Need to Slow Population Growth in the Muslim World
- The President of Russia on Population
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