- Partner + Children = Happiness? The Effects of Partnerships and Fertility on Well-Being
Hans-Peter Kohler, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
Jere R. Behrman, W. R. Kenan, Jr. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
Axel Skytthe, Research Scientist, Institute of Public Health, Danish Twin Registry, and Danish Center for Demographic Research, Odense Economic and rational-choice theories suggest that individuals form unions or have children because these decisions increase their subjective well-being or "happiness." We investigate this relation using within–MZ (identical) twin pair estimates to control for unobserved factors, such as optimistic preferences, that may simultaneously affect happiness, partnerships, and fertility. Our findings, based on Danish twins aged 25–45 and 50–70 years old, include the following. (1) Currently being in a partnership has large positive effects on happiness. (2) A first child substantially increases well-being, in analyses without controls for partnerships, and males enjoy an almost 75 percent larger happiness gain from a first-born son than from a first-born daughter; however, only females enjoy a happiness gain from the first-born child with controls for partnerships. (3) Additional children beyond the first child have a negative effect on subjective well-being for females, while there is no effect for males. (4) Ever having had children does not significantly affect the subjective well-being of males or females aged 50–70 years. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 407–445]
Restructuring of the US Meat Processing Industry and New Hispanic Migrant Destinations William Kandel, Sociologist, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
Emilio A. Parrado, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Duke University Findings from the 2000 US Census indicate high rates of Hispanic population increase beyond urban areas and traditional immigrant-receiving states. The diversity of new destinations raises questions about forces attracting migrants to rural areas and links between economic structural change and Hispanic population growth. Our conceptual framework applies dual labor market theory to the meat processing industry, a sector whose growing Hispanic labor force offers an illustrative case study for analyzing how labor demand influences demographic change. We document the industry's consolidation, concentration, increased demand for low-skilled labor, and changing labor force composition over three decades. We then position meat processing within a broader analysis that models nonmetropolitan county Hispanic population growth between 1980 and 2000 as a function of changes in industrial sector employment share and nonmetro county economic and demographic indicators. We find that growth in meat processing employment exhibits the largest positive coefficient increase in nonmetro Hispanic population growth over two decades and the largest impact of all sectors by 2000. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 447–471]
Did the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic Originate in China? Christopher Langford, Emeritus Reader in Demography, Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science This article seeks to establish whether China, like most other countries, experienced an influenza outbreak in 1918–19 and to gauge its extent and severity. It evaluates the suggestion that the 1918–19 influenza virus originated in China and was carried to France by Chinese migrant workers during World War I. The investigation covers statistical and other materials for Hong Kong and Shanghai, nonstatistical materials for elsewhere in China, and British archival records relating to the recruitment and transportation to France of Chinese workers. Influenza was widespread in China in 1918–19, but, although severe in some parts, it was mild in many places compared with elsewhere in the world. The most plausible explanation is that the 1918–19 influenza virus, or a closely related precursor, had originated in China, so that many Chinese had prior exposure and hence some immunity. It is thus conceivable that Chinese workers en route to France would have carried the virus with them, leading to the pandemic.[31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 473–505]
Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002 Kellie J. Hagewen, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Institute for Ethnic Studies, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
S. Philip Morgan, Professor, Sociology Department, Duke University Cross-nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude–behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 507–527]
Notes and Commentary - Explaining Asia's "Missing Women": A New Look at the Data
Monica Das Gupta, Senior Social Scientist, Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington, DC The fact that millions of females are "missing" in East Asia and South Asia has been attributed to cultural factors that support strong son preference in these countries. A widely disseminated paper by Emily Oster argues that a large part of this phenomenon can be attributed to excessively masculine sex ratios at birth resulting from maternal infection with hepatitis B. If her thesis is true, current policies to address this problem would need to be reframed to include biological factors in addition to cultural factors. The data show, however, that whether or not females "go missing" is determined by the existing sex composition of the family into which they are conceived. Girls with no older sisters have similar chances of survival as boys. However, girls conceived in families that already have a daughter experience steeply higher probabilities of being aborted or of dying in early childhood. This indicates that cultural factors still provide the overwhelming explanation for the "missing" females. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 529–535]
Data and Perspectives - Estimates of Regional and Global Life Expectancy, 1800–2001
James C. Riley, Distinguished Professor, History Department, Indiana University, Bloomington Historians and demographers have gone to considerable trouble to reconstruct life expectancy in the past in individual countries. This overview collects information from a large body of that work and links estimates for historical populations to those provided by the United Nations, the World Bank, and other sources for 1950–2001. The result is a picture of regional and global life expectancy at birth for selected years from 1800 to 2001. The bibliography of more than 700 sources is published separately on the web. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 537–543]
- Changes in the Quantum of Russian Fertility During the 1980s and Early 1990s
Nicholas B. Barkalov was, at the time of his death in May 2005, an independent consultant to several international agencies. To investigate whether Russia's dramatic fertility changes pre- and post-Soviet times were due primarily to tempo effects, as has been argued recently, or to quantum effects, this study standardizes for factors that distort conventional fertility indexes. A time series spanning 1978–93 of period parity-progression ratios for the Russian Federation is constructed applying the PADTFR technique, which takes into account age, parity, and time elapsed since the birth of the previous child, to data from the Russian micro census of February 1994 (2.8 million maternity histories). Both the fertility rise of the 1980s and the fertility fall of the early 1990s are found to be primarily due to changes in the probability of a second birth. The impact of tempo on the conventional TFR is significant, but of relatively minor magnitude in comparison to changes in the quantum of fertility. The social and economic context in which the fertility change took place is described. [31, no. 3 (Sep 05): 545–556]
Archives - D. V. Glass on the Problems of a Declining Population
Book Reviews - So Many Civilizations, So Few Pages: A Review Essay on Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, reviewed by Hal Rothman
- Christian Joppke, Selecting by Origin: Ethnic Migration in the Liberal State, reviewed by Bob Birrell
- Douglas S. Massey and J. Edward Taylor (eds.), International Migration: Prospects and Policies in a Global Market, reviewed by John Salt
- United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, Gender Equality: Striving for Justice in an Unequal World, reviewed by Stephan Klasen
- International Organization for Migration, Arab Migration in a Globalized World, reviewed by Leila Farsakh
Short Reviews - Christoph Borgmann, Social Security, Demographics, and Risk
- Maxx Dilley, Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Arthur L. Lerner-Lam, and Margaret Arnold, Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis
- Christophe Z. Guilmoto and S. Irudaya Rajan (eds.), Fertility Transition in South India
- Susanne M. Klausen, Race, Maternity, and the Politics of Birth Control in South Africa, 1910–39
- Philip Kreager and Elisabeth Schröder-Butterfill (eds.), Ageing without Children: European and Asian Perspectives
- United Nations Human Settlements Programme, The State of the World's Cities, 2004/2005: Globalization and Urban Culture
Documents - Poverty, Infectious Disease, and Environmental Degradation as Threats to Collective Security: A UN Panel Report
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