- The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends
Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 605643]
Inequality in Life Spans and a New Perspective on Mortality Convergence Across Industrialized Countries Ryan D. Edwards, Postdoctoral Scholar, RAND Corporation
Shripad Tuljapurkar, Morrison Professor of Population Studies, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University The second half of the twentieth century witnessed substantial convergence in life expectancy around the world. We examine differences in the age pattern of mortality in industrialized countries over time to show that inequality in adult life spans, which we measure with the standard deviation of life table ages at death above age 10 years, S10, is increasingly responsible for the remaining divergence in mortality. We report striking differences in level and trend of S10 across industrialized countries since 1960, which cannot be explained by aggregate socioeconomic inequality or differential external-cause mortality. Rather, S10 reflects both within- and between-group inequalities in life spans and conveys new information about their combined magnitudes and trends. These findings suggest that the challenge for health policies in this century is to reduce inequality, not just lengthen life. [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 645674]
Determinants of Mortality at Older Ages: The Role of Biological Markers of Chronic Disease Cassio M. Turra, Research Associate, Office of Population Research and Center for Health and Wellbeing, Princeton University, and Cedeplar, Federal University of Minas Gerais
Noreen Goldman, Professor of Demography and Public Affairs, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
Christopher L. Seplaki, Assistant Professor, Center on Aging and Health and Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University
Dana A. Glei, Research Demographer, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
Yu-Hsuan Lin, Section Chief, Population and Health Research Center, Bureau of Health Promotion, Department of Health, Taiwan
Maxine Weinstein, Distinguished Professor of Population and Health, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University Researchers have had a longstanding interest in understanding the determinants of mortality. This article examines the impact of a broad array of biological markers, together with self-reports of physical and mental health status, on the probability of dying for older adults. The estimates are derived from logistic regression models based on data from a national survey in Taiwan. The analysis confirms previous studies demonstrating the effects of clinical measures related to metabolic syndrome on mortality and identifies detrimental effects of neuroendocrine and immune-system markers. The results reveal that biomarkers provide independent explanatory power in the presence of self-reported health measures. The associations between biomarkers and mortality found here provide new avenues for projecting future mortality and elucidating differences in longevity across populations. [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 675698]
Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries Wolfgang Lutz, Leader, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Vegard Skirbekk, Research Scholar, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible "low-fertility trap." Policies explicitly addressing the fertility-depressing effect of increases in the mean age at childbearing (the tempo effect) may be a way to raise period fertility to somewhat higher levels and help escape the "low-fertility trap" before it closes. Reforms in the school system may affect the timing of childbearing by lowering the age at completion of education. A more efficient school system, which provides the same qualifications with a younger school-leaving age, is potentially capable of increasing period fertility and hence exerting a rejuvenating effect on the age composition, even if the levels of cohort fertility remain unchanged. Such policies may also have a positive effect on completed cohort fertility. [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 699720]
Notes and Commentary - On Net Intergenerational Wealth Flows: An Update
John C. Caldwell, Emeritus Professor of Demography, Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra Almost 30 years have passed since I introduced the concept of "net intergenerational wealth flows" in a PDR essay, "Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory." A great deal of research has been published since then, and accordingly an update is needed. That research suggests the following propositions. Immediately before fertility transition, children's farm labor may not quite offset their consumption, although much depends on how far into adulthood they continue to perform at least some work for their parents. In premodern times children may have paid their way because of lower consumption. Research on the pretransitional value of children's work produced contradictory results because it examined both hunter-gatherer societies, in which both adults and children worked comparatively few hours, and farming societies, in which both worked longer hours. In pretransitional societies, the insurance value of children was almost unlimited. For most people in most societies, alternative ways of maintaining savings from the earlier to the later stage of the life cycle first became available only when large-scale investment in children's education was possible. The costs and gains from that investment played a major role in the onset of the fertility transition. [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 721740]
Data and Perspectives - The Timing and Pace of Health Transitions around the World
James C. Riley, Distinguished Professor, History Department, Indiana University, Bloomington Estimates from some 700 mostly national studies of survival in the past are assembled to create a broad picture of regional and global life expectancy gains across space and time and to examine implications of that picture. At the initiation of their health transitions, most countries had a life expectancy between 25 and 35 years. Countries that began later made gains at a faster pace. Those faster gains are usually associated with the dissemination of Western medicine. But rapid gains occurred in the period 192050, largely before the availability of antibiotics or modern vaccines. Especially rapid gains came in the years immediately after World War II in countries where the leading causes of death were communicable diseases that could be managed with antibiotics but also in countries where the leading causes of death were degenerative organ diseases. Both periods of rapid gain await satisfactory explanation. The bibliography of more than 700 sources is published separately on the Web at «www.lifetable.de.RileyBib.htm». [31, no. 4 (Dec 05): 741764]
Archives - Paul Fauchille on the Rights of Emigration and Immigration
Book Reviews - National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Panel on Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries, Cynthia B. Lloyd (ed.), Growing Up Global: The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries, reviewed by John G. Haaga
- Gordon H. Sellon, Jr. (ed.), Global Demographic Change: Economic Impacts and Policy Challenges; A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 2628, 2004, reviewed by Geoffrey McNicoll
- Herwig Birg, Die ausgefallene Generation: Was die Demographie über unsere Zukunft sagt [The generation that dropped out: What demography says about our future], reviewed by Etienne van de Walle
- Roger Mark Selya, Development and Demographic Change in Taiwan 19451995, reviewed by Zachary Zimmer
Short Reviews - Majid Ezzati, Alan D. Lopez, Anthony Rodgers, and Christopher J. L. Murray (eds.), Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors
- Terence H. Hull (ed.), People, Population, and Policy in Indonesia
- Gavin W. Jones and Mehtab S. Karim (eds.), Islam, the State and Population Policy
- Sarah Michael, Undermining Development: The Absence of Power among Local NGOs in Africa
- Lisa Smyth, Abortion and Nation: The Politics of Reproduction in Contemporary Ireland
- United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and United Nations Population Fund, The New Demographic Regime: Population Challenges and Policy Responses
- Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), European Migration: What Do We Know?
Documents - Report of the Global Commission on International Migration
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