David Coleman, Professor of Demography, University of Oxford This article explores the implications of the recent trends and projections of the ethnic or foreign-origin populations of selected European countries. It suggests that if the composition of these European populations continues to change as projected, the resulting ethnic and social transformation should be regarded as a "third demographic transition." On conservative assumptions, the foreign-origin proportions of these populations are projected to rise to between 15 percent and over 30 percent by mid-century with almost linear rates of change. The proportion of the foreign-origin populations from non-European background is expected to increase from about one-half today to about two-thirds by mid-century, up to 20 percent. Interethnic unions moderate the growth of some immigrant-origin populations strictly defined, while introducing a new diversity from rapidly growing heterogeneous mixed-origin populations that may eventually defy categorization. But no official projections incorporate such categories. Migration assumptions are more important than fertility assumptions in determining the outcome. Given the dependence of this ethnic change upon immigration, it is not inevitable but is substantially dependent on political events and public policy decisions. However, most of the official projections discussed here assume little or no moderation of flows up to their end-points in mid-century. [32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 401–446]
- Linguistic Life Expectancies: Immigrant Language Retention
in Southern California (PDF)
Rubén G. Rumbaut, Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine Douglas S. Massey, Henry G. Bryant Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs, Princeton University Frank D. Bean, Chancellor's Professor of Sociology and Economics and Co-Director, Center for Research on Immigration, Population, and Public Policy, University of California, Irvine Newly available data from two surveys—the Immigration and Intergenerational Mobility in Metropolitan Los Angeles survey, and the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study in San Diego—are used to test the assertion that Spanish is unlikely to go the way of other immigrant languages in the United States and succumb to English-language dominance across the generations. Southern California offers an ideal critical test of this hypothesis because it is the country's largest Spanish-speaking region and houses its largest concentration of immigrants. Linguistic survival is defined in two ways: a preference for speaking a mother tongue within the household and the ability to speak that language very well. Survival curves are computed in half-generation increments, and life table methods are applied to derive linguistic life expectancies—the average number of generations a mother tongue can be expected to survive in the United States after the arrival of an immigrant. Although the life expectancy of Spanish is found to be greater among Mexicans in Southern California compared to other groups, its ultimate demise nonetheless seems assured by the third generation. English has never been seriously threatened as the dominant language of the United States, and it is not threatened today—not even in Southern California. What is endangered instead is the survivability of the non-English languages that immigrants bring with them to the United States. [32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 447–460]
- Income Inequality, Unequal Health Care Access, and Mortality in China
Zhongwei Zhao, Senior Fellow, Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, and Bye Fellow, Pembroke College, University of Cambridge China made great progress in reducing mortality between 1950 and 1980 when its life expectancy at birth increased from approximately 35 to more than 65 years. Although China has achieved further reductions in mortality under rapid economic growth since that period, the profound socioeconomic transformation has brought about some negative changes in health care services, such as the collapse of the Cooperative Medical System in rural areas, that have had adverse public health consequences. The growing inequality in income distribution has also impeded progress in mortality decline in poor areas and among disadvantaged social groups. This article analyzes health and mortality data collected through the 2003 National Health Services Survey by the Ministry of Health from about 100 districts and counties. It first compares mortality changes between developed and less developed areas. Then it examines the differences in health care among these regions and the relationship between mortality changes and a wide range of socioeconomic factors, especially recent changes in health care and services. Finally, it considers the implications of inequality in health care and income distribution for further improvement in mortality in China.
[32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 461–483]
- Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy
Peter McDonald, Professor of Demography, Australian National University, and Vice President, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Low fertility in advanced societies today has been an unintended outcome of two major waves of social and economic change, social liberalism and new capitalism. Both these waves have enhanced individual aspirations in relation to the quality of personal and economic lives. In differing cultural and welfare environments, however, both have also brought considerable pressure to bear upon the capacity to form and maintain families. The personal desire for intimacy and individuation through family relationships remains strong. In their support or promotion of social liberalism and economic deregulation, often through legislation, states have been principal players in the higher risks now associated with family life. Individual preferences are formed in the shadow of the social and economic institutions of the society. The shape of these institutions is within the realm of political choice. Governments of countries experiencing very low fertility can and should act to support family life and the bearing and raising of children.
[32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 485–510]
Notes and Commentary - Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany
Anke C. Zimmermann, Ph.D. candidate in economics, University of Southern California Richard A. Easterlin, University Professor and Professor of Economics, University of Southern California In Germany the life satisfaction of those in first marriages traces the following average course. Starting from a baseline of life satisfaction in noncohabiting years one or more years prior to marriage, those who cohabit before marriage have an increase in life satisfaction significantly above the baseline. In the year of marriage and that immediately following, the life satisfaction of those in first marriages, prior cohabitors and noncohabitors combined, increases to a value even further above the baseline, significantly higher than for premarital cohabitors. Thereafter, life satisfaction of those in first marriages drops, but remains significantly above the baseline, at the same level as for premarital cohabitors. Those whose first marriage ends in separation or divorce have a life satisfaction trajectory not significantly different from that described above, but separation or divorce reduces this group's life satisfaction to the original baseline value. The roots of prospective dissolution apparently lie in this group's distinctive socioeconomic and personality traits. These findings are from an analysis of 21 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel. [32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 511–528]
- Birth Prevention in the American and French Fertility Transitions: Contrasts in Knowledge and Practice
Etienne van de Walle was, at the time of his death in March 2006, Emeritus Professor of Demography and Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Virginie De Luca, maître de conférences en démographie and researcher, Laboratoire Printemps, Université de Versailles-Saint Quentin en Yvelines Fertility transition began earlier in France and the United States than in other Western countries. This article seeks to link the means couples in the two countries used to reduce their fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries to the availability and content of books on marriage, the physiology of reproduction, and, more explicitly, means of controlling fertility. The modes of diffusion of information on birth prevention in the two countries are compared. Although with variations in timing, the acceptance of family limitation as permissible behavior followed comparable paths in the United States and France: a period of tolerance, during which the practice became established in the population, followed by a period of ineffective repression, and finally its progressive legitimization. [32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 529–555]
Data and Perspectives Black Mortality at Very Old Ages in Official US Life Tables: A Skeptical Appraisal Samuel H. Preston, Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Irma T. Elo, Associate Professor of Sociology and Chair, Graduate Group in Demography, Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia The 2003 official US life tables show exceptionally high survival probabilities from age 85 to 100 for black men and women. Because a large fraction of Americans now reach age 85, mortality estimates above that age affect summary measures of longevity, including life expectancy at birth and the probability that a newborn will reach age 100. This probability is greater for blacks than for whites. We discuss problems of data accuracy among older African Americans and the effect that they are expected to have on mortality estimates. We compare the 2003 black life table values to established age patterns of mortality in low-mortality countries and to mortality estimates based on Social Security data. We conclude that black mortality above age 85 in the 2003 official life tables is implausibly low. [32, no. 3 (Sep 06): 557–565]
Archives - Wilhelm Roscher on Means of Promoting Population Increase
Book Reviews America's Never-Ending Debate: A Review Essay on Aristide R. Zolberg, A Nation by Design: Immigration Policy in the Fashioning of America, reviewed by Douglas S. Massey Colin H. Kahl, States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World, reviewed by Thomas Homer-Dixon - Simon Szreter, Hania Sholkamy, and A. Dharmalingam (eds.), Categories and Contexts: Anthropological and Historical Studies in Critical Demography, reviewed by Adrian C. Hayes
Short Reviews Richard L. Harris (ed.), Globalization and Development in Latin America David Henley, Fertility, Food and Fever: Population, Economy and Environment in North and Central Sulawesi, 16001930 Nie Jing-Bao, Behind the Silence: Chinese Voices on Abortion Dudley L. Poston and Michael Micklin (eds.), Handbook of Population United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Mortality Report 2005 UN Millennium Project Task Force on HIV/AIDS, Malaria, TB, and Access to Essential Medicines, Working Group on HIV/AIDS, Combating AIDS in the Developing World
Documents - On Integrating Immigrants in Germany
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