-
John Bongaarts, Vice President, Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York
Since 1800 life expectancy at birth in high-income countries has doubled from about 40 years to nearly 80 years. Pessimists expect these improvements to end soon because we are
approaching biological limits to longevity, whereas optimists predict continued rapid improvements without limits. To shed light on this controversy, past trends in the juvenile, background, and
senescent components of life expectancy are examined in 16 high-income countries. Large increases in conventional life expectancy before 1950 are found to be primarily attributable to reductions in
juvenile and background mortality. After 1950 the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed because of diminishing declines in juvenile and background mortality, but senescent mortality fell
more rapidly than before, thus becoming the main cause of rising life expectancy at birth. The role of smoking in the past half-century is also quantified. In the future, background mortality and
juvenile mortality will have little or no impact on longevity because they have reached very low levels. There is, however, no evidence of approaching limits, and life expectancy will likely improve at a
rate of approximately 1.5 years per decade owing to continued declines in senescent mortality. [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 605–628]
-
Population Control in India: Prologue to the Emergency Period
Matthew Connelly, Associate Professor of History, Columbia University
The history of coercive measures to control population growth in India is often reduced to a few politicians caught up in a domestic crisis. In fact, the practices thought to distinguish the
Emergency Period that began in 1975 developed over decades with the advice and encouragement of international and nongovernmental organizations. Coercion was countenanced not just between clinics
and clients, but between countries, especially when Washington could use food aid as leverage. In both the United States and India, the leading proponents were concerned not just about poverty
but with preserving their power—whether as castes and religious communities, or countries and "civilizations." Together they overcame opposition to time-bound targets, incentive payments,
and contravention of medical standards. These developments led to a disastrous campaign in 1965–67 to induce 29 million women to accept IUDs, and to the beginning of an international debate
about how population policy might empower people rather than control them. [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 629–667]
-
The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example?
Ron J. Lesthaeghe, Visiting Professor of Demography, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and University of California, Irvine
Lisa Neidert, Senior Research Associate, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Current demographic changes in the United States closely follow those posited by the "second demographic transition" (SDT) theory. Characteristics such as rises in premarital cohabitation and
in fertility among cohabiters, postponement of both marriage and parenthood, subreplacement fertility, and large immigration streams are all ingredients that are clearly shared with other western
SDT countries. The United States has several idiosyncratic features such as high immigrant fertility (mainly Mexican) and high teenage fertility (both black and white) in several regions that lift
overall fertility to replacement level. An analysis of the spatial patterns of these characteristics, at levels of both 50 states and 3,141 counties, shows a remarkable correlation with the outcomes of the
last two presidential elections. The negative correlation between the "second demographic transition" dimension and the vote for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 is resistant to controls for
possible common causes of a socioeconomic or cultural nature (such as income, education, urbanization, religion, ethnicity), suggesting that the "second demographic transition" itself has been a factor
that directly co-determined the spatial pattern of political outcomes such as presidential elections and regional aspects of the "American culture war." [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 669–698]
-
The Changing Context of Sexual Initiation in sub-Saharan Africa
Barbara S. Mensch, Senior Associate, Population Council, New York
Monica J. Grant, Ph.D. candidate, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
Ann K. Blanc, Program Officer, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
During the past 20 years, substantial reductions have occurred in the proportion of young women in sub-Saharan Africa who report that they married as teenagers. An often-stated consequence of
a delay in age at marriage is a rise in the proportion of young women who engage in premarital sex. This article investigates the links between changing age at marriage and premarital sexual
behavior in 27 sub-Saharan African countries in which Demographic and Health Surveys were conducted between 1994 and 2004. Using multiple-decrement life tables to examine the competing risks
of premarital sex and marriage without prior sexual experience, we answer the largely unaddressed question of how reductions in the prevalence of early marriage have affected the likelihood
of premarital sexual initiation. Our analysis reveals that although the age at first sexual activity has either remained the same or risen, a shift in the context of sexual initiation from marriage to
before marriage has taken place in many countries. We assess whether the increase in the proportion of young women who report premarital sex is influenced by an increase in exposure resulting
from delayed marriage or by an increase in the rate of premarital sex. The evidence on this point is mixed: in some settings greater exposure explains more of the increase, whereas in others an
increased rate of premarital sex dominates. [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 699–727]
Notes and
Commentary
-
The Influence of Informal Work and Subjective Well-Being on Childbearing in Post-Soviet Russia
Brienna Perelli-Harris, postdoctoral researcher, Department of Sociology, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
During the transition to a market economy, the population of Russia has experienced widespread economic uncertainty and anomie, and fertility has declined to unprecedentedly low levels.
In contrast to western Europe, where very low fertility in large measure reflects postponement of childbearing and increasing childlessness, very low fertility in Russia has been primarily driven by
the drastic reduction of second and higher-parity births. This study shows that two factors—subjective well-being and participation in informal work—are significantly associated with wanting
and having more than one child. Subjective well-being is a psychological resource that helps people maintain a positive attitude, while participation in informal work may be hypothesized as
indicative of an ability to act regardless of labor market insecurity. Although these two factors are not directly related, they can be seen as indicators of the willingness to assume additional
responsibilities, including childbearing and childrearing. [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 729–753]
Data and Perspectives
-
The Demographic Impact of a Female Deficit in China, 2000–2050
Isabelle Attané, demographer and sinologist, Institut National d'Études Démographiques, Paris The growing female deficit that appeared in China during the 1980s has been widely discussed in the literature, but its future demographic consequences have been little explored. This
article investigates the potential consequences of the female deficit on population growth, the number of births, and sex structure. The long-term effects of China's female deficit will not be measured
only in terms of a shortage of marriage partners for males, but will also be felt in the lost childbirths consequent on these nonformed unions. The article identifies these effects using
population projections based on four divergent scenarios concerning the sex ratio at birth between 2000 and 2050. [32, no. 4 (Dec 06): 755–770]
Archives
- President Nixon on Problems of Population Growth
Book Reviews
- Amartya Sen, Identity and Violence: The Illusion of
Destiny, reviewed by Michael S. Teitelbaum
-
Mary E. Daly, The Slow Failure: Population Decline and Independent Ireland,
1922–1973, reviewed by Damien Courtney
Short
Reviews
- Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon,
2006 State of the Future
- Ian Goldin and Kenneth Reinert,
Globalization for Development: Trade, Finance, Aid, Migration, and Policy
- Lindsey Grant (ed.),
The Case for Fewer People: The NPG Forum Papers
- Moni Nag, Sex Workers of India: Diversity in Practice of Prostitution and Ways of Life
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,
Population, Resources, Environment and Development Database, Version 4.0
- World Health Organization,
Working Together for Health: The World Health Report 2006
Documents
- The Stern Review on the Economic Effects of Climate Change
- The European Defence Agency on Europe's Future in a Globalizing World
|
