Articles
- Options for Fertility
Policy Transition in China / Zeng Yi
This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility
policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future
population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly
living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the
marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these
comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a
gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He
proposes a three-stage “soft-landing” strategy for fertility policy
transition: (1) a 7-year initial smooth transition period; (2) from
approximately 2014–15 to 2032–35 a universal two-child policy combined
with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032–35
all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility
timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable
demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to
keeping the current policy unchanged. [33, no. 2 (Jun 07): 215–246] (offsite
link*)
- On the Determinants of
Mortality Reductions in the Developing World / Rodrigo R. Soares
This article presents
and critically discusses evidence on the determinants of mortality
reductions in developing countries. It argues that increases in life
expectancy between 1960 and 2000 were largely independent of
improvements in income. The author characterizes the age and
cause-of-death profile of changes in mortality and assesses what can be
learned about the determinants of these changes from the international
evidence and from country-specific studies. Public health
infrastructure, immunization, targeted programs, and the spread of less
palpable forms of knowledge all seem to have been important factors.
Finally, the article suggests that the evolution of health inequality
across and within countries is intrinsically related to the process of
diffusion of new technologies and to the nature of these new
technologies, public or private.[33, no. 2 (Jun 07): 247–287] (offsite
link*)
- Sex, Breastfeeding, and
Marital Fertility in Pretransition China / William Lavely
Coital frequency is at the heart of the debate over low marital
fertility in pretransition China. This study argues that coital
frequency in contemporary China is indicative of sexual behavior in an
earlier era. Frequency of intercourse is low in China relative to
Europe, a natural outgrowth of a traditional family system and related
sexual culture only partially transformed by a century of family
revolution. Customary sexual behaviors and breastfeeding practices
together shaped the Chinese historical fertility regime as they did the
European. As explanations for China’s low marital fertility, these
proximate determinants leave little scope for the operation of
fecundity-reducing malnutrition on the one hand, or deliberate fertility
control on the other. The fertility regimes of other pretransition
agrarian societies more closely resemble China’s than Europe’s, seeming
to confirm a pattern of European demographic exceptionalism.[33, no. 2
(Jun 07): 289–320] (offsite
link*)
- Longevity Among
Hunter-gatherers: A Cross-cultural Examination / Michael Gurven,
Hillard Kaplan
Post-reproductive longevity is a robust feature of human life and not
only a recent phenomenon caused by improvements in sanitation, public
health, and medical advances. We argue for an adaptive life span of
68–78 years for modern Homo sapiens based on our analysis of
mortality profiles obtained from small-scale hunter-gatherer and
horticultural populations from around the world. We compare patterns of
survivorship across the life span, rates of senescence, modal ages at
adult death, and causes of death. We attempt to reconcile our results
with those derived from paleodemographic studies that characterize
prehistoric human lives as “nasty, brutish, and short,” and with
observations of recent acculturation among contemporary subsistence
populations. We integrate information on age-specific dependency and
resource production to help explain the adaptive utility of longevity in
humans from an evolutionary perspective.[33, no. 2 (Jun 07): 321–365] (offsite
link*)
Notes and
Commentary
- A Realist View of
Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity / Bruce A. Carnes, S. Jay
Olshansky
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing
the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions
about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging,
and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors’
views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a
“realist” position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to
exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advances in the
control of aging. We identify a number of myths that have been
attached to our work: (1) Reaching an average life expectancy of 85
years is a pessimistic outlook for human longevity; (2) Species
possess an intrinsic mortality schedule that cannot be modified by
human intervention; (3) Realist scenarios of the future course of
human longevity are based on notions of biological determinism; (4)
Realists assert that there is an age beyond which there can be no
survivors; (5) Hypothesized biological barriers to longer life spans
have been scientifically studied and refuted; and (6) Realists claim
that life expectancy at birth cannot exceed 85 years. In dispelling
these myths, we hope to provide a more accurate representation of
our school of biodemographic thought.[33, no. 2 (Jun 07): 367–381] (offsite
link*)
Data and Perspectives
-
An Increase in the Sex Ratio of Births to
India-born Mothers in England and Wales: Evidence for Sex-selective
Abortion / Sylvie Dubuc, David Coleman
Male preference in many Asian cultures results in discriminatory
practices against females, including neglect and infanticide. This
preference, together with the availability of prenatal sex
determination and sex-selective abortion, has led to an increase in
sex ratios at birth in China, India, and South Korea. The resulting
expected gender imbalances raise ethical, demographic, and social
concerns. We analyzed birth statistics to see whether similar trends
are apparent among births to foreign-born mothers in England and
Wales. Before 1990, sex ratios at birth were consistently nearly one
point lower (104) for the three major Asian groups in Britain
compared with mothers born in Western countries. This is
inconsistent with previous suggestions that Asian populations have a
higher “natural” sex ratio at birth. In the birth statistics since
1990, we find a four-point increase in the sex ratio at birth for
mothers born in India, attributable particularly to an increase at
higher birth orders, mirroring findings reported for India. This
suggests that sex-selective abortion is occurring among mothers born
in India and living in Britain. By contrast, no significant increase
was observed for Pakistan-born and Bangladesh-born mothers, among
whom male preference also exists. It seems that male preference in
different cultures does not necessarily lead to sex-selective
abortion.[33, no. 2 (Jun 07): 383–400] (offsite
link*)
Archives
(offsite
link*)
- Yves Guyot on
the Protection of National Labor
Book Reviews
(offsite
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Short
Reviews (offsite
link*)
-
Robert E. Goodin
and Charles Tilly (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Contextual
Political Analysis
-
J. Richard
Harrison and Glenn R. Carroll, Culture and Demography in
Organizations
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Michael Hoefer,
Nancy Rytina, and Christopher Campbell, Estimates of the
Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States:
January 2005
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Sally Engle Merry,
Human Rights and Gender Violence: Translating International Law
into Local Justice
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Stephen Moses,
James F. Blanchard, Han Kang, Faran Emmanuel, Sushena Reza Paul,
Marissa L. Becker, David Wilson, and Mariam Claeson, AIDS in
South Asia: Understanding and Responding to a Heterogeneous Epidemic
-
William F.
Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control
of Climate
Documents
(offsite
link*)
-
Projected Regional
Effects of Climate Change from the Fourth IPCC Assessment
- Energy,
Security, and Climate: United Kingdom Concept Paper for a UN
Security Council Debate
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