Articles
- Pandemic
Influenza: A Review / Landis MacKellar
This essay, written ten years after the
first human death from avian influenza, reviews scientific, social, and
policy aspects of pandemic influenza, and asks whether the near-crisis
level of concern is justified. That there will be another influenza
pandemic is certain, and a number of factors suggest it will occur
sooner rather than later. It is impossible, however, to predict two of
the pandemic’s crucial characteristics—its pathogenicity and the
age-attack curve. The scientific arsenal has never been stronger, yet
gaps in the availability of antiviral drugs and vaccines are inevitable,
and the world is poorly prepared to cope with the politics of drug
shortage. Some studies suggest emergent pandemics can be “ring-fenced,”
but these studies are not broadly accepted. Assuming that they cannot,
rapid and global deployment of a range of responses, including social
distancing, travel limitations, and prophylactic/curative application of
antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, can limit impacts. However, the impacts
are bound to be significant if not severe. Overall health-sector
strengthening, rural development (particularly in the area of veterinary
health), and addressing the local, national, and international
governance issues that cut across all aspects of infectious disease are
more likely to bear fruit, especially in the developing world, than the
pandemic preparedness planning now in vogue. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07):
429–451] (offsite
link*)
- Delayed
Marriage and Very Low Fertility in Pacific Asia / Gavin W. Jones
The general decline in fertility levels in Pacific Asia has in its
vanguard countries where fertility rates are among the lowest in the
world. A related trend is toward delayed marriage and nonmarriage. When
prevalence of cohabitation in European countries is allowed for, levels
of “effective singlehood” in many countries of Pacific Asia have run
ahead of those in northern and western Europe. This raises questions
about the extent to which delayed marriage has been implicated in
fertility declines, and whether the same factors are leading both to
delayed marriage and to lowered fertility within marriage. The article
argues that involuntary nonmarriage is likely to be more common in
Pacific Asia than in Western countries, and that resultant involuntary
childlessness plays a substantial role in the low fertility rates
currently observed. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 453–478] (offsite
link*)
- The Effect on
Elderly Parents in Cambodia of Losing an Adult Child to AIDS / John
Knodel, Zachary Zimmer, Kiry Sovan
Kim, Sina Puch
Little systematic quantitative research is available on the
parents of adults who become ill and die of AIDS despite their large
number and the wide range of adverse consequences. This study, based on
survey data from Cambodia, explores economic and social effects on
parents in a country characterized by extreme poverty and a substantial
AIDS epidemic. Results indicate that parents play a major role during
the illness of an adult son or daughter, often sharing living quarters,
providing care, and paying for illness-related expenses. These
contributions to the societal response to AIDS come at considerable cost
to parents at advanced ages. Multivariate analysis suggests lasting
negative consequences for parents’ economic well-being, and the
consequences are more substantial if the adult child’s death was from
AIDS rather than from other causes. The study found little evidence of
stigma associated with losing a grown child to AIDS: reactions from
local community members are more likely to be sympathetic and supportive
than negative. These results underscore the need for organizations
dealing with AIDS to recognize the contributions older persons make in
coping with the epidemic and to address the burden it imposes on them.
[33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 479–500] (offsite
link*)
- Sero-Discordant
Couples in Five African Countries: Implications for Prevention
Strategies / Damien de Walque
Most analyses of the determinants of HIV infection are performed at the
individual level. The recent Demographic and Health Surveys, which
include results from HIV tests, allow the study of HIV infection at the
level of the cohabiting couple. This article exploits this feature of
the data for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania. The
analysis yields two findings about the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic
that have important implications for policy. First, at least two-thirds
of the infected couples are sero-discordant, that is, only one of the
two partners is infected. This implies scope for prevention efforts
among infected couples. Second, among 30–40 percent of the infected
couples only the woman is infected. This is at odds with levels of
self-reported extramarital sex by women and with the common perception
that unfaithful men are the main link between high-risk groups and the
general population. These findings are confirmed by tests of robustness.
These results indicate that extramarital sexual activity among women in
union is a substantial source of vulnerability to HIV that should be, as
much as male extramarital activity, targeted by prevention efforts.
[33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 501–523] (offsite
link*)
Notes and
Commentary
- Taking the
Lab to the Field: Monitoring Reproductive Hormones in Population
Research / Claudia R. Valeggia
The incorporation of biological measures in social science research
allows for the development of robust models, with greater
explanatory power. By analyzing the underlying proximate causes of
fertility and mortality, biodemographers have been able to model
demographic patterns more accurately. Recent technological advances
are making possible the analysis of biological samples collected
using minimally invasive methods. Methods and techniques are
discussed that can be used for estimating hormonal, particularly
reproductive hormone, levels in large-scale population studies in
which thousands of samples could be collected. Sample collection
methods and techniques reviewed include blood spots, urine samples,
and saliva samples. The collection of biological samples is
associated with serious ethical concerns. The article discusses the
issue of asymmetries in technology between developing and developed
countries, emphasizing the need for capacity building and
information transfer. Illustrative contributions of biological data
are presented. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 525–542] (offsite
link*)
- A Near Electoral Majority of
Pensioners: Prospects and Policies / Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei
Scherbov
In the first half of this century in many of today‘s developed
countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or
older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the
proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through
taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly
through public pension and health care benefits ) will rise. By
mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of
electorates will become net beneficiaries of government
expenditures, producing unprecedented changes in their political
landscapes. We analyze three aspects of this phenomenon in Germany,
Japan, and the United States. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 543–554] (offsite
link*)
Data and Perspectives
- Mortality of American Troops in the
Iraq War / Emily Buzzell, Samuel H. Preston
We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq
from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006.
Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat-related. The
death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of
the United States but substantially higher than that of young
adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in
Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those
wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US
troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30
November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to
be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have
lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age.
Other categories with above-average mortality in Iraq are enlisted
troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07):
555–566] (offsite
link*)
- Impacts of Demographic Trends on
US Household Size and Structure / Leiwen Jiang, Brian O’Neill
We use a household projection model to construct future scenarios
for the United States designed to reflect a wide but plausible range
of outcomes, including a new set of scenarios for union formation
and dissolution rates based on past trends, experience in other
countries, and current theory. The period covered is from 2000 to
2100. We find that the percentage of people living in households
headed by the elderly may climb from 11 percent in 2000 to 20–31
percent in 2050 and 20–39 percent in 2100, while the average size of
households could plausibly be as low as 2.0 or as high as 3.1 by the
second half of the century. We assess the sensitivity of household
size and structure to various demographic events, and show that
outcomes are most sensitive to changes in fertility rates and rates
of union formation and dissolution. They are less sensitive to the
timing of marriage and childbearing and to changes in life
expectancy. [33, no. 3 (Sep 07): 567–591] (offsite
link*)
Archives (offsite
link*)
- Friedrich List on Globalization
versus the National Interest
Book Reviews (offsite
link*)
-
Taking Stock of Population Studies: A
Review Essay on Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume
Wunsch (eds.), Demography: Analysis and Synthesis
Reviewed by Geoffrey McNicoll
-
Contesting the Cause and Severity of the
Black Death: A Review Essay on Ole J. Benedictow, The Black
Death, 1346–1353: The Complete History
Reviewed by Andrew Noymer
-
Saul Halfon, The Cairo Consensus:
Demographic Surveys, Women’s Empowerment, and Regime Change in
Population Policy
Reviewed by Andrew Kantner
-
Helen Epstein, The Invisible Cure:
Africa, the West, and the Fight Against AIDS
Reviewed by Malcolm Potts
Short
Reviews (offsite
link*)
-
Andrea Cornwall, Elizabeth Harrison, and
Ann Whitehead (eds.), Feminisms in Development: Contradictions,
Contestations and Challenges
-
Campbell Gibson and Kay Jung, The
Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850 to 2000
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Claude Got, Patricia Delhomme, and
Sylvain Lassarre, More Could Be Done to Prevent Road Deaths in
France
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Devesh Kapur and John McHale, Give Us
Your Best and Brightest: The Global Hunt for Talent and Its Impact
on the Developing World
-
Esther Katz (ed.), The Selected
Papers of Margaret Sanger. Volume 2: Birth Control Comes of Age,
1928–1939
-
Çaglar Özden and Maurice Schiff (eds.),
International Migration, Remittances, and the Brain Drain
-
United Nations Population Fund, State
of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth
Documents (offsite
link*)
-
The US Council of Economic Advisers on
Immigration’s Economic Impact
-
Ban Ki-moon on Migration in a Globalized
World
-
Nicholas Sarkozy on Tasks of the
European Union
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