Population Briefs: Reports on Population Council Research

October 2003, Vol. 9, No. 3

Urban Studies
Transformation in World's Cities Explored

Historically, developing countries have been largely rural. As a result, demographers have focused on life cycle events—marriage, fertility, health, and schooling—in mainly rural contexts. In the next 30 years, however, most of the world’s population growth will occur in the cities and towns of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This trend will transform the developing world and generate unprecedented challenges.

Recognizing the need for a better understanding of issues related to urban population growth, the National Research Council formed the Panel on Urban Population Dynamics. The panel was chaired by Population Council demographer Mark R. Montgomery and Richard Stren of the University of Toronto. Thirteen other scholars participated. The members reviewed existing literature and conducted new analyses. A report of their findings was published by National Academies Press.

Rapid changes
According to the panel, the world is in the midst of a fundamental economic restructuring, with less-developed countries urbanizing and industrializing rapidly. The speed and scale of these changes pose risks to the environment and health. For example, expanding squatter settlements and shanty towns exacerbate urban congestion and hinder the provision of basic infrastructure and amenities. There are benefits to urbanization, though. Unlike rural areas, cities have a concentration of diverse social and economic resources, which, when properly managed, can become sources of innovation and advances in productivity.

One challenge to exploiting these resources springs from a recent trend in which national governments and ministries have decentralized the delivery of services related to health, family planning, and poverty alleviation. Responsibility for these tasks and for revenue raising has been transferred to local governments, few of which are equipped to take them on.

Demographers are currently unable to provide much evidence-based guidance for urban policymakers. Most of the available data examines simple rural/urban dichotomies, ignoring the diversity of life within and among cities. Not only are there large and small cities, but these locales are populated by both rich and poor people. Some of the poor live within wealthier neighborhoods, while others are segregated in slums. Each of these settings varies with regard to health, fertility, and many other factors. Adequate population data that are comparable among and within cities, as well as between urban and rural areas, are clearly needed.

Findings
By plumbing the available data, the panel found that large urban areas enjoy a marked advantage over smaller cities and rural areas in the provision of piped water, flush toilets, and electricity. For example, 31 percent of people in cities smaller than 100,000 lack these amenities, while only 2 percent of people in cities larger than 5 million lack them. When they examined access to these services on the basis of wealth, the researchers found that rural residents still fare worse. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, 89 percent of rural villagers lack these amenities, compared with 63 percent of the urban poor and 34 percent of better-off urban residents.

Perhaps because of the greater access to services found in cities, urban dwellers have generally been thought to be healthier than rural residents. Since the mid-1980s, however, researchers have questioned this urban health advantage. Where urban poverty is spatially concentrated—in slums—health risks can exceed those seen in rural areas. For example, one study showed that infant mortality is higher in a Dhaka slum (134 deaths per 1,000 births) than in rural Bangladesh (93 deaths per 1,000 births).

"The urban advantage in health is not a myth—but is only a partial truth," says Montgomery. "Where it exists, it is an advantage that has been constructed from political will and from the marshaling of massive infrastructural and other economic investments."

Urban governance
Solutions to urban problems are increasingly being sought at the city level as national governments decentralize basic service delivery. The panel identified many governance challenges that will confront cities in the developing world in the coming years. Cities will have to increase their capacity to provide services, often with limited financial resources. They will have to cope with the diversity inherent in urban settings and deal with increasing urban violence and crime. Finally, they will have to overcome the difficulties of providing services in sprawling urban areas.

By 2030, more than 80 percent of the population of Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania and more than 50 percent of the population of Africa and Asia will be living in urban areas. "Until demographers develop an understanding of all facets of the urbanization process, their work will continue to be of marginal relevance to those charged with the design of better urban policies," concludes the panel.

Source
Montgomery, Mark R., Richard Stren, Barney Cohen, and Holly E. Reed (eds.). 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World, a report of the National Research Council Panel on Urban Population Dynamics. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

(Return to issue contents)