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No. 192, 2004 Bongaarts, John. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 192. New York: Population Council. (PDF) Abstract This study has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicates that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method based on the shifting mortality model is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
