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No. 209, 2006 Lloyd, Cynthia B., Cem Mete, and Monica J. Grant. "The implications of changing educational and family circumstances for children’s grade progression in rural Pakistan: 1997–2004," Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 209. New York: Population Council. (PDF) Abstract This paper assesses the effects of primary school characteristics, household characteristics, and recent household economic and demographic shocks on school dropout rates during the first eight grades (primary and middle school) in rural Punjab and North West Frontier Province. The analysis is based on two waves of panel data, collected in 1997 and 2004. These data are unique in a developing-country setting in that they track longitudinally changes in the school environment (i.e., school and teacher characteristics) and in the household environment (including the arrival of unwanted births) for a panel of women and their children. While grade retention has improved over the past six years, dropout rates for girls remain fairly high, particularly at the end of primary school (grade five), at which point one-third of girls who started school have left. The results provide evidence of the importance of both household and school factors as statistically significant determinants of dropout rates. For girls, the arrival in the family of an unwanted birth in the last six years and enrollment in a government primary school (as opposed to a private school) significantly increase the likelihood of dropout, whereas the availability of postprimary schooling in the community, having a mother who had attended school, and living in a household with higher consumption levels reduce the probability of dropout. For boys, school quality, as measured by the percent of teachers in the primary school attended who reside in the community, and living in a more developed community significantly reduce the probability of dropping out; a loss of remittances in the household during the past six years significantly increases the likelihood of dropping out. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
