John Bongaarts, Ph.D.
Vice President and Distinguished Scholar
John Bongaarts is a Population Council vice president and distinguished scholar and has worked at the Council since 1973. His research focuses on the determinants of fertility, population–environment relationships, the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic, population aging, and population policy options in the developing world. His studies on AIDS in the late 1980s and early 1990s tracked the spread of the epidemic and its effects on mortality. His research on fertility issues, a prevailing interest throughout his 30-year career, has helped developing countries construct population policy options. His statistical analyses have shown how such diverse factors as malnutrition, the availability of birth control, the duration of breastfeeding, and the accessibility of abortion have affected global and local birth patterns. This research has laid the foundation for effective population forecasts that have galvanized population policy in several countries, including China and developing nations in sub-Saharan Africa.
Mr. Bongaarts serves as chairman of the Panel on Population Projections of the National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council. He is a member of the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, the US National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He received the Robert J. Lapham Award (1997) and the Mindel Sheps Award (1986) from the Population Association of America and the Research Career Development Award from the National Institutes of Health (1980). Dr. Bongaarts has a master’s degree in systems analysis from the Eindhoven Institute of Technology, Netherlands, and a Ph.D. in physiology and biomedical engineering from the University of Illinois.
John Bongaarts, Ph.D.
Vice President and Distinguished Scholar
How Long Do We Live? (more)
This project is documenting in contemporary countries with high life expectancy that the conventional approach to the measurement of longevity is unsatisfactory whenever mortality is changing.
(1/2001 - ongoing)
Topics: Population policy and demographic analysis
Countries:
The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developing World (more)
Future declines in fertility in some developing countries may not be as rapid as in the past, and in a number of countries fertility may stall above the replacement level for a prolonged period.
(1/1997 - ongoing)
Topics: Population policy and demographic analysis
Countries: Developing Countries
John Bongaarts, Ph.D.
Vice President and Distinguished Scholar
A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility (abstract)Bongaarts,John; Sobotka,Tomas
Population and Development Review 38(1): 83-120
Publication date: 2012
Executive summary -- Family planning programs for the 21st century: Rationale and design (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Cleland,John C.; Townsend,John W.; Bertrand,Jane T.; Das Gupta,Monica
Publication date: 2012
Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Cleland,John C.; Townsend,John W.; Bertrand,Jane T.; Das Gupta,Monica
Publication date: 2012
Global population trends and policy options (abstract)
Ezeh,Alex C.; Bongaarts,John; Mberu,Blessing U.
Lancet 380(9837): 142-148
Publication date: 2012
Peak farmland and the prospect for land sparing (PDF)
Ausubel,Jesse H.; Wernick,Iddo K.; Waggoner,Paul E.; McNicoll,Geoffrey; Bongaarts,John; Churchill,Ethel
supplement to Population and Development Review, vol. 38 (15), pp. 217-238
Publication date: 2012
Population and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny (HTML)
Publication date: 2012
Population growth and policy options in sub-Saharan Africa
Bongaarts,John; Jaworski,Jared A.
from Advances in Sociology Research, pp. 141-160
Publication date: 2012
Résumé Exécutif -- Les programmes de planification familiale du XXIe siècle: fondement et conception (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Cleland,John C.; Townsend,John W.; Bertrand,Jane T.; Das Gupta,Monica
Publication date: 2012
Can family planning programs affect high desired family size in sub-Saharan Africa? (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health 37(4): 209-216
Publication date: 2011
Family planning as an economic investment (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Sinding,Steven W.
SAIS Review of International Affairs D31(2): 35-44
Publication date: 2011
Global trends in AIDS mortality (HTML)
Bongaarts,John; Pelletier,Francois; Gerland,Patrick; Rogers,Richard G.; Crimmins,Eileen M.
International Handbooks of Population (8), pp. 171-184
Publication date: 2011
Population policy in transition in the developing world (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Sinding,Steven W.
Science 333(6042): 574-576
Publication date: 2011
Population, poverty, and sustainable development: A review of the evidence (PDF)
Das Gupta,Monica; Bongaarts,John; Cleland,John C.
Policy Research Working Paper (5719)
Publication date: 2011
Rising food prices raise spectre of Malthus (HTML)
Bongaarts,John
People & the Planet
Publication date: 2011
Fertility and public policy
Bongaarts,John; Ritzer,George; Ryan,J.Michael
from 2010 Concise Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology
Publication date: 2010
Global HIV/AIDS policy in transition (abstract) (HTML)
Bongaarts,John; Over,Mead
Science 328(5984): 1359-1360
Publication date: 2010
How many more AIDS deaths?
Bongaarts,John; Pelletier,Francois; Gerland,Patrick
Lancet 375(9709): 103-104
Publication date: 2010
Population growth, policy options, and public health
Bongaarts,John; Finkel,Madelon
from Perspectives in Public Health: Challenges for the 21st Century
Publication date: 2010
The causes of educational differences in fertility in sub-Saharan Africa (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Poverty, Gender, and Youth Working Paper (no. 20)
Publication date: 2010
When is a tempo effect a tempo distortion? (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Genus 66(2): 1-14
Publication date: 2010
A response to critics of family planning programs (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Sinding,Steven W.
International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health 35(1): 39-44
Publication date: 2009
A response to critics of family planning programs [Authors' reply]
Bongaarts,John; Sinding,Steven W.
International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health 35(3): 153-154
Publication date: 2009
Global trends in AIDS mortality (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Pelletier,Francois; Gerland,Patrick
Poverty, Gender, and Youth Working Paper (no. 16)
Publication date: 2009
Human population growth and the demographic transition (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences 364(1532): 2985-2990
Publication date: 2009
Kenya's fertility transition: Trends, determinants and implications for policy and programmes (PDF)
Askew,Ian; Ezeh,Alex C.; Bongaarts,John; Townsend,John W.
Publication date: 2009
The new population challenge (PDF)
Bruce,Judith; Bongaarts,John; Mazur,Laurie
from A Pivotal Moment: Population, Justice, and the Environmental Challenge, pp. 260-275
Publication date: 2009
Trends in senescent life expectancy (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population Studies 63(3): 203-213
Publication date: 2009
"Food and population: The return of Malthus?" commentary (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Publication date: 2008
Afterthoughts on the mortality tempo effect
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith; Barbi,Elisabetta; Vaupel,James W.
Demographic Research Monographs (14), pp. 263-269
Publication date: 2008
Estimating mean lifetime
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith; Barbi,Elisabetta; Vaupel,James W.
Demographic Research Monographs (2), pp. 11-27
Publication date: 2008
Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Studies in Family Planning 39(2): 105-110
Publication date: 2008
Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Poverty, Gender, and Youth Working Paper (no. 7)
Publication date: 2008
Five period measures of longevity
Bongaarts,John; Barbi,Elisabetta; Vaupel,James W.
Demographic Research Monographs (12), pp. 237-245
Publication date: 2008
Has the HIV epidemic peaked? (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Buettner,Thomas; Heilig,Gerhard; Pelletier,Francois
Population and Development Review 34(2): 199-224
Publication date: 2008
Has the HIV epidemic peaked? (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Buettner,Thomas; Heilig,Gerhard; Pelletier,Francois
Poverty, Gender, and Youth Working Paper (no. 9)
Publication date: 2008
How Long Do We Live?
Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects
Demographic Research Monographs
Publication date: 2008
Population growth
Bongaarts,John; Parillo,Vincent N.
from Encyclopedia of Social Problems
Publication date: 2008
The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith; Barbi,Elisabetta; Vaupel,James W.
Demographic Research Monographs (3), pp. 29-65
Publication date: 2008
What can fertility indicators tell us about pronatalist policy options? (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2008: 39-55
Publication date: 2008
Late marriage and the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Population Studies 61(1): 73-83
Publication date: 2007
The causes of stalling fertility
Bongaarts,John; Hussain,Azmal
from Demographic Transition: A Global Perspective
Publication date: 2007
How long will we live? (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 32(4): 605-628
Publication date: 2006
How long will we live? (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 215)
Publication date: 2006
Late marriage and the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 216)
Publication date: 2006
The causes of stalling fertility transitions (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Studies in Family Planning 37(1): 1-16
Publication date: 2006
The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
from Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006, pp. 115-151
Publication date: 2006
Five period longevity measures (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Demographic Research 13(21): 547-558
Publication date: 2005
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Demography 42(1): 23-49
Publication date: 2005
The causes of stalling fertility transitions (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 204)
Publication date: 2005
The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 207)
Publication date: 2005
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 192)
Publication date: 2004
Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 185)
Publication date: 2004
Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 30(1): 1-23
Publication date: 2004
Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions [Arabic] (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 185)
Publication date: 2004
Population policies: Demographic aspects of
Bongaarts,John; Post,Stephen G.
from Encyclopedia of Bioethics, pp. 2083-2087
Publication date: 2004
Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population Studies 57(3): 321-336
Publication date: 2003
Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 177)
Publication date: 2003
Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences [Arabic] (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 177)
Publication date: 2003
Estimating mean lifetime (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 179)
Publication date: 2003
Estimating mean lifetime (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100(23): 13127-13133
Publication date: 2003
Future population trends
Bongaarts,John; International Food Policy Research Institute
from Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020: Proceedings of an International Conference, September 4-6, 2001, Bonn, Germany
Publication date: 2002
Future trends in contraceptive prevalence and method mix in the developing world (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Johansson,Elof D.B.
Studies in Family Planning 33(1): 24-36
Publication date: 2002
How long do we live? (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 156)
Publication date: 2002
How long do we live? (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Population and Development Review 28(1): 13-29
Publication date: 2002
Living arrangements of the elderly in the developing world: An analysis of DHS household surveys (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Zimmer,Zachary
Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 57B(3): S145-S157
Publication date: 2002
Population: Ignoring its impact
Bongaarts,John
Scientific American 286(1): 67-69
Publication date: 2002
The end of the fertility transition in the developed world (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 28(3): 419-443
Publication date: 2002
The end of the fertility transition in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Completing the Fertility Transition UN document ESA/P/WP.172/Rev.1
Publication date: 2002
The end of the fertility transition in the developing world (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 161)
Publication date: 2002
A population commotion
Bongaarts,John
Foreign Policy (July-August): 8-12
Publication date: 2001
Dependency burdens in the developing world
Bongaarts,John; Birdsall,Nancy; Kelley,Allen C.; Sinding,Steven W.
from Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, pp. 55-64
Publication date: 2001
Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies
Bongaarts,John; Bulatao,Rodolfo A.; Casterline,John B.
from Global Fertility Transition,, pp. 260-281
Publication date: 2001
Fertility change, quantum and tempo
Bongaarts,John; Smelser,Neil J.; Baltes,Paul B.
from International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences, pp. 5522-5525
Publication date: 2001
Fertility, proximate determinants of
Bongaarts,John; Demeny,Paul; McNicoll,Geoffrey
from Encyclopedia of Population, pp. 412-417
Publication date: 2001
Household size and composition in the developing world (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 144)
Publication date: 2001
Household size and composition in the developing world [Arabic] (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 144)
Publication date: 2001
Household size and composition in the developing world in the 1990s (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population Studies 55(3): 263-279
Publication date: 2001
Living arrangements of older adults in the developing world: An analysis of DHS household surveys (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Zimmer,Zachary
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 148)
Publication date: 2001
Living arrangements of older adults in the developing world: An analysis of DHS household surveys [Arabic] (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Zimmer,Zachary
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 148)
Publication date: 2001
Population forecasts
Bongaarts,John; Breslow,Lester
from Encyclopedia of Public Health, pp. 942-
Publication date: 2001
Population growth and policy options in the developing world
Bongaarts,John; Bruce,Judith; Pinstrup-Andersen,Per; Pandya-Lorch,Rajul
from The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and Environmental Degradation, pp. 61-65
Publication date: 2001
Prospects for fertility decline and implications for population growth in South Asia
Bongaarts,John; Amin,Sajeda; Sathar,Zeba A.; Phillips,James F.
from Fertility Transition in South Asia, pp. 401-422
Publication date: 2001
The end of the fertility transition in the developed world (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 152)
Publication date: 2001
Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population
Publication date: 2000
Future trends in contraception in the developing world: Prevalence and method mix (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Johansson,Elof D.B.
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 141)
Publication date: 2000
On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Reply (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Population and Development Review 26(3): 560-564
Publication date: 2000
The potential role of contraception in reducing abortion (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Westoff,Charles F.
Studies in Family Planning 31(3): 193-202
Publication date: 2000
The potential role of contraception in reducing abortion (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Westoff,Charles F.
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 134)
Publication date: 2000
Completing the demographic transition (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Bulatao,Rodolfo A.
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 125)
Publication date: 1999
Completing the demographic transition (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Bulatao,Rodolfo A.
Population and Development Review 25(3): 515-529
Publication date: 1999
Fertility decline in the developed world: Where will it end?
Bongaarts,John
American Economic Review 89(2): 256-260
Publication date: 1999
Population growth and policy options in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Development Bulletin 47 : 21-23
Publication date: 1999
Population momentum
Bongaarts,John; Mason,Andrew; Merrick,Thomas; Shaw,Paul R.
from Population Economics, Demographic Transition, and Development: Research and Policy Implications (World Bank Working Paper), pp. 3-15
Publication date: 1999
The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population Studies 53(3): 277-289
Publication date: 1999
The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 120)
Publication date: 1999
The paradox of transition: Unwanted childbearing in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Orgyn 10(3): 14-17
Publication date: 1999
Adolescent Reproductive Behavior in the Developing World: Introduction and overview
Bongaarts,John; Cohen,Barney
Studies in Family Planning 29(2)
Publication date: 1998
Can the growing human population feed itself?
Bongaarts,John; Demeny,Paul; McNicoll,Geoffrey
from The Earthscan Reader in Population and Development, pp. 306-312
Publication date: 1998
Demographic consequences of declining fertility (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Science 282(5388): 419-420
Publication date: 1998
Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 114)
Publication date: 1998
On the quantum and tempo of fertility (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 109)
Publication date: 1998
On the quantum and tempo of fertility (abstract) (PDF)
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291
Publication date: 1998
Population policy options in the developing world
Bongaarts,John; Bruce,Judith
2020 Brief, A Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment October
Publication date: 1998
Prospects for fertility decline and implications for population growth in South Asia
Bongaarts,John; Amin,Sajeda
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 94)
Publication date: 1997
Trends in unwanted childbearing in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 98)
Publication date: 1997
Trends in unwanted childbearing in the developing world (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Studies in Family Planning 28(4): 267-277
Publication date: 1997
Global trends in AIDS mortality (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 22(1): 21-45
Publication date: 1996
Population pressure and the food supply system in the developing world (abstract)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 22(3): 483-503
Publication date: 1996
Population pressure and the food supply system in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 86)
Publication date: 1996
Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions
Bongaarts,John; Watkins,Susan Cotts
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 88)
Publication date: 1996
Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions (abstract)
Bongaarts,John; Watkins,Susan Cotts
Population and Development Review 22(4): 639-682
Publication date: 1996
Global trends in AIDS mortality
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 80)
Publication date: 1995
The role of family planning programs in contemporary fertility transitions
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 71)
Publication date: 1995
Population policy options in the developing world
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 59)
Publication date: 1994
The causes of unmet need for contraception and the social content of services
Bongaarts,John; Bruce,Judith
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 69)
Publication date: 1994
Population growth and the food supply: Conflicting perspectives
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 53)
Publication date: 1993
The fertility impact of family planning programs
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 47)
Publication date: 1993
Population growth and global warming
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 37)
Publication date: 1992
The supply-demand framework for the determinants of fertility: An alternative implementation
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 44)
Publication date: 1992
Do reproductive intentions matter?
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 30)
Publication date: 1991
The KAP-gap and the unmet need for contraception
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 23)
Publication date: 1991
The demographic impact of family planning programs
Bongaarts,John; Mauldin,W.Parker; Phillips,James F.
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 17)
Publication date: 1990
The measurement of wanted fertility
Bongaarts,John
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 10)
Publication date: 1990
A new method for estimating contraceptive failure rates
Bongaarts,John; Rodriguez,German
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 6)
Publication date: 1989
Geographic variation in the HIV epidemic and the mortality impact of AIDS in Africa
Bongaarts,John; Way,Peter
Policy Research Division Working Paper (no. 1)
Publication date: 1989
A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility (PDF)
Bongaarts,John
Population and Development Review 4(1): 105-132
Publication date: 1978
John Bongaarts, Ph.D.
Vice President and Distinguished Scholar
The stalled fertility transition and family planning in Kenya (PDF)Presentation at the International Conference on Family Planning: Research and Best Practices, Kampala, 17 November
Askew,Ian; Ezeh,Alex C.; Bongaarts,John; Townsend,John W.
Publication date: 2009
Trends in senescent life expectancy (abstract)
Presentation at Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Detroit, 30 April
Bongaarts,John
Publication date: 2009
When is tempo effect a tempo distortion? (abstract)
Presentation at Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Detroit, 30 April
Bongaarts,John; Feeney,Griffith
Publication date: 2009
How long will we live? A demographer's perspective (PDF)
Presentation at the National Academy of Sciences: Distinctive Voices @ The Beckman Center, Irvine, California, 21 May
Bongaarts,John
Publication date: 2008
Contact
E-mail: jbongaarts@popcouncil.org
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John Bongaarts
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