This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non-Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non-Hispanic whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non-Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over-65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.
Published in a peer-reviewed journal of the Population Council.