Journal Article

The migration intentions of young Egyptians

This study examines the migration intentions of young people in Egypt before and after the 2011 revolution, driven by three sets of factors: (1) individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, (2) household characteristics, and (3) community characteristics and political and civic participation. Logistic regression models are applied to study the determinants of intentions to live, study, or work abroad among young Egyptians (defined as individuals aged 18 to 29), using data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE) conducted in 2009 (N = 8488) and in 2014 (N = 5885). The surveys are nationally representative, covering all governorates in Egypt. The analysis indicates that respondents’ age, gender, marital status, and employment status play a significant role in shaping migration intentions. After the 2011 revolution, the effects are dependent upon economic and institutional conditions. The employment status affects the migration intention of young people in 2009; but the effects become insignificant in 2014. Moreover, respondents who have participated in political and voluntary activities are more likely to express migration intentions. Pollution levels in the community are also positively correlated with the intention to migrate. The results indicate that those who expressed migration intentions are a selective group in terms of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings have policy relevance because knowledge and understanding of migration intentions and their determinants can be used to assess and develop scenarios about future migration.